Discussion:
[Totally OT] Covid-19, was: Re: Creating an open source version of VMS, was: Re: OpenVMS Hobbyist Notification
(too old to reply)
Simon Clubley
2020-03-13 13:17:04 UTC
Permalink
For those of us that survive 2020.
I was reluctant to raise this, given that it is totally off topic,
but it affects everyone here and I was wondering what the situation
is really like on the ground around the planet compared to what the
media are and are not reporting.

I've marked the thread as off-topic and started a new thread so that
it's easy to kill file or skip over.

Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level concern
but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the various
hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is not reacting
strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real feeling that
things could escalate out of control over the coming weeks due to that.

How are things in your part of the planet ?

$ set response/mode=good_natured

Anyone know if there are any open positions at the IceCube lab ? :-)

Thanks,

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
John Reagan
2020-03-13 13:30:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
How are things in your part of the planet ?
Here in NH, there are a handful of positive cases; more across the border in MA. At the stores, no hand gels, rush on toilet paper, etc. I've stayed home more lately but I had a migraine last week and just wanted the quiet. I do have a few extra cans/tins of food in the pantry and extra in the freezer, but I'm not hoarding anything. (does wine count?)

I have found the https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/ subreddit to be a good source of news that seems to be fair as much as anything can be.

Just washing my hands more often (I have BLISS under my fingernails)
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-13 13:38:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
For those of us that survive 2020.
I was reluctant to raise this, given that it is totally off topic,
but it affects everyone here and I was wondering what the situation
is really like on the ground around the planet compared to what the
media are and are not reporting.
I've marked the thread as off-topic and started a new thread so that
it's easy to kill file or skip over.
Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level concern
but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the various
hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is not reacting
strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real feeling that
things could escalate out of control over the coming weeks due to that.
How are things in your part of the planet ?
I follow US, Denmark, Poland and Italy pretty close.

And the pictures seems very similar across:

* Most orgs are ordering IT people and other "paper pushers" to
work from home
* Many schools and universities are closed
* Many places has put restrictions on public gatherings
prohibiting either >1000 or >100 people
* Travel had come to a total standstill: some countries
does not allow entry, companies are cancelling business
travel, airlines are cancelling flights, people do not
want to travel
* politicians like to go on TV and pretend they can control
the situation
* people are stocking up on supplies, but true panic is
rare

Arne
Simon Clubley
2020-03-13 18:26:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Simon Clubley
Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level concern
but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the various
hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is not reacting
strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real feeling that
things could escalate out of control over the coming weeks due to that.
How are things in your part of the planet ?
I follow US, Denmark, Poland and Italy pretty close.
* Most orgs are ordering IT people and other "paper pushers" to
work from home
* Many schools and universities are closed
* Many places has put restrictions on public gatherings
prohibiting either >1000 or >100 people
The UK government hasn't started to implement proper "social distancing"
measures yet and that's starting to make some people nervous because the
argument is that by the time it becomes _really_ obvious such measures
are required then the effectiveness of such measures may be reduced if
only implemented at that time.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* Travel had come to a total standstill: some countries
does not allow entry, companies are cancelling business
travel, airlines are cancelling flights, people do not
want to travel
* politicians like to go on TV and pretend they can control
the situation
* people are stocking up on supplies, but true panic is
rare
Outside of the hand gels, I've seen some small bits of panic buying
but I've not yet seen anything like what you see in TV reports from
the US when a hurricane is about to hit.

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-03-13 23:06:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Simon Clubley
Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level concern
but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the various
hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is not reacting
strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real feeling that
things could escalate out of control over the coming weeks due to that.
How are things in your part of the planet ?
I follow US, Denmark, Poland and Italy pretty close.
* Most orgs are ordering IT people and other "paper pushers" to
work from home
* Many schools and universities are closed
* Many places has put restrictions on public gatherings
prohibiting either >1000 or >100 people
The UK government hasn't started to implement proper "social distancing"
measures yet and that's starting to make some people nervous because the
argument is that by the time it becomes _really_ obvious such measures
are required then the effectiveness of such measures may be reduced if
only implemented at that time.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* Travel had come to a total standstill: some countries
does not allow entry, companies are cancelling business
travel, airlines are cancelling flights, people do not
want to travel
* politicians like to go on TV and pretend they can control
the situation
* people are stocking up on supplies, but true panic is
rare
Outside of the hand gels, I've seen some small bits of panic buying
but I've not yet seen anything like what you see in TV reports from
the US when a hurricane is about to hit.
Simon.
Today (Friday) all hand gel and toilet paper was sold out in my
home town (Söderköping, for those knowing east Sweden). Weird,
since thay will stock up on Monday again anyway...

Panic is a larger risk then the Corona virus itself.
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-14 00:04:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Panic is a larger risk then the Corona virus itself.
That is the big problem and the media is doing their best to fan it.
After all, their real purpose is to make money, not inform anyone.

bill
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-14 07:44:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
That is the big problem and the media is doing their best to fan it.
After all, their real purpose is to make money, not inform anyone.
Fox News? Yes. Non-profit news outlets? No.
seasoned_geek
2020-03-14 12:00:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Bill Gunshannon
That is the big problem and the media is doing their best to fan it.
After all, their real purpose is to make money, not inform anyone.
Fox News? Yes. Non-profit news outlets? No.
Even non-profits are for profits. The higher the ratings go the higher the donations go and the more the CEO can earn.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-14 13:25:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by seasoned_geek
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Bill Gunshannon
That is the big problem and the media is doing their best to fan it.
After all, their real purpose is to make money, not inform anyone.
Fox News? Yes. Non-profit news outlets? No.
Even non-profits are for profits. The higher the ratings go the higher
the donations go and the more the CEO can earn.
At least in some places, non-profit news does not depend on donations
and there is either no CEO or if there is he is on a fixed salary.
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-14 12:47:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Bill Gunshannon
That is the big problem and the media is doing their best to fan it.
After all, their real purpose is to make money, not inform anyone.
Fox News? Yes. Non-profit news outlets? No.
Fox is the only one I have seen that isn't fanning it. Spend a
lot of time laughing at the others.

There is no such thing as non-profit. Even in the communist world
it's all about who gets to be on top.

bill
Simon Clubley
2020-03-16 01:39:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Simon Clubley
Outside of the hand gels, I've seen some small bits of panic buying
but I've not yet seen anything like what you see in TV reports from
the US when a hurricane is about to hit.
Today (Friday) all hand gel and toilet paper was sold out in my
home town (Söderköping, for those knowing east Sweden). Weird,
since thay will stock up on Monday again anyway...
Panic is a larger risk then the Corona virus itself.
Update a couple of days later:

The panic buying has become _much_ more noticable this weekend
at the same stores I was referring to previously.

Not only is it the stuff in the media, but also some tinned can
products. For example, WTH are people planning to do with stockpiled
tins of tomatoes ???

Quantity limitations have also been introduced on some items
at one of the stores I visit, but the shelves containing those
items are still bare...

BTW, to make this story even _more_ cheerful :-(, some initial medical
reports say that Covid-19 may leave permanent lung damage in some
survivors. :-(

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
Andy Burns
2020-03-16 06:49:19 UTC
Permalink
The panic buying has become_much_ more noticable this weekend
at the same stores I was referring to previously.
On saturday shops seemed desolate, on sunday the car parks had traffic jams.
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-03-16 09:20:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Simon Clubley
Outside of the hand gels, I've seen some small bits of panic buying
but I've not yet seen anything like what you see in TV reports from
the US when a hurricane is about to hit.
Today (Friday) all hand gel and toilet paper was sold out in my
home town (Söderköping, for those knowing east Sweden). Weird,
since thay will stock up on Monday again anyway...
Panic is a larger risk then the Corona virus itself.
The panic buying has become _much_ more noticable this weekend
at the same stores I was referring to previously.
Not only is it the stuff in the media, but also some tinned can
products. For example, WTH are people planning to do with stockpiled
tins of tomatoes ???
And besides, there are no reported issues at the producers, so
everything will be restocked today (Monday).
Post by Simon Clubley
Quantity limitations have also been introduced on some items
at one of the stores I visit, but the shelves containing those
items are still bare...
BTW, to make this story even _more_ cheerful :-(, some initial medical
reports say that Covid-19 may leave permanent lung damage in some
survivors. :-(
Yes, there are all sorts of "reports" floating around. I also saw that
the reported "permanent" damages can be sorted out by some training.
I have no idea what is the truth here, and few have, I guess.

Jan-Erik.
Post by Simon Clubley
Simon.
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-16 16:42:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Simon Clubley
Outside of the hand gels, I've seen some small bits of panic buying
but I've not yet seen anything like what you see in TV reports from
the US when a hurricane is about to hit.
Today (Friday) all hand gel and toilet paper was sold out in my
home town (Söderköping, for those knowing east Sweden). Weird,
since thay will stock up on Monday again anyway...
Panic is a larger risk then the Corona virus itself.
The panic buying has become _much_ more noticable this weekend
at the same stores I was referring to previously.
Not only is it the stuff in the media, but also some tinned can
products. For example, WTH are people planning to do with stockpiled
tins of tomatoes ???
And besides, there are no reported issues at the producers, so
everything will be restocked today (Monday).
Not to mention how much of this food is going to end out in the
landfill because people will not be able to consume all that
they have hoarded before the expiration date. Even food that
has been frozen has a shelf life.

bill
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-16 12:43:41 UTC
Permalink
What you can expect:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Arne
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-16 16:46:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
Arne
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence. This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.

bill
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-16 16:58:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.  This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
I don't know what they want to do.

I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.

This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus.

The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
as ordinary flu virus.

Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.

All the initiatives they are doing are not so much to
reduce the number of people that will get it but to reduce
the number of people that will get it at the same time. Aka
they are trying to spread it out over a longer time to enable
hospitals to handle.

Politicians can be more or less honest about that.

But ...

Arne
Simon Clubley
2020-03-16 19:07:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
what they want to do.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
  This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
That's a serious concern. If that's true, it looks like we are going
to be going through all this again next winter until the vaccine
is ready.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I don't know what they want to do.
I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
They can implement strict social distancing measures.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus.
The normal flu virus does at least have a vaccine available
which can attenuate this spread.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
as ordinary flu virus.
Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
All the initiatives they are doing are not so much to
reduce the number of people that will get it but to reduce
the number of people that will get it at the same time. Aka
they are trying to spread it out over a longer time to enable
hospitals to handle.
Yes, that's exactly what the plan is. However, one problem with that
plan is that the NHS has suffered cutbacks over the last decade and
it's likely to show regardless of planning. This is the latest challenge:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51914490

which is to do with available ventilators.

(I've changed that to bbc.com for people outside of the UK in case the
bbc.co.uk version isn't available to you.)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Politicians can be more or less honest about that.
And that bit they have said upfront in media interviews.

Unfortunately, there is serious concern that, if the UK government's
plan to wait until it gets worse before implementing the same drastic
measures that other countries have done does not work, then it will be
too late to implement those plans effectively.

Don't forget that actions taken today are not designed to affect
tomorrow's infected count, but the count 14 days from when those
actions are taken.

That means if it becomes _really_ obvious in the near future that the
situation is now out of control, then it's about 2 weeks too late to
implement the plans that would have reduced those infected numbers.

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-16 20:05:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Yes, that's exactly what the plan is. However, one problem with that
plan is that the NHS has suffered cutbacks over the last decade and
it's likely to show regardless of planning.
Right. How long will it be before BoJo blames the NHS cuts on the EU?
Post by Simon Clubley
Unfortunately, there is serious concern that, if the UK government's
plan to wait until it gets worse before implementing the same drastic
measures that other countries have done does not work, then it will be
too late to implement those plans effectively.
Right.
Brian_R
2020-03-16 20:23:09 UTC
Permalink
Cynically, and given the kind of folks in the UK government, I wouldn't be too surprised
if the loss of those deemed to be economically inactive wasn't perceived as a plus. Less
pressure on social care, reduced pension costs and so on. Plus plenty of cash can be siphoned of
from the tax payer to private companies such as bail outs for air travel companies and the
hire of private hospital beds.

Potentially more crappy times ahead
Simon Clubley
2020-03-16 20:56:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Simon Clubley
Yes, that's exactly what the plan is. However, one problem with that
plan is that the NHS has suffered cutbacks over the last decade and
it's likely to show regardless of planning.
Right. How long will it be before BoJo blames the NHS cuts on the EU?
Given his behaviour over the years, I am sure that he has his excuses all
ready and practiced in case this goes really bad very quickly.

Right now, I am hoping the worst of this can be delayed long enough
to get enough new critical care equipment into active use to make
a difference.

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
Michael Moroney
2020-03-16 20:18:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
what they want to do.
The Chinese have been trying plasma transfusions from people who have recovered
from this virus into others to see if any immunity can be transferred.
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus.
The normal flu virus does at least have a vaccine available
which can attenuate this spread.
This isn't the same as the ordinary flu (rhinovirus).
Even with it, they have to "guess" which strain to make the vaccine for,
and often they guess wrong.
Simon Clubley
2020-03-16 20:49:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Michael Moroney
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
what they want to do.
The Chinese have been trying plasma transfusions from people who have recovered
from this virus into others to see if any immunity can be transferred.
Interesting, thanks. I wasn't aware of that.
Post by Michael Moroney
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus.
The normal flu virus does at least have a vaccine available
which can attenuate this spread.
This isn't the same as the ordinary flu (rhinovirus).
Even with it, they have to "guess" which strain to make the vaccine for,
and often they guess wrong.
Yes I know, although I admit the above is unclear if read in that light.

What I was trying to say was that there is a vaccine that can be used
to slow down the transmission of the normal flu virus through the
population.

You are correct however that there is still some guessing involved.

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-17 00:14:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
what they want to do.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
  This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
That's a serious concern. If that's true, it looks like we are going
to be going through all this again next winter until the vaccine
is ready.
Not holding out much hope for that. There have already been reports
that the virus has mutated at least once.
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I don't know what they want to do.
I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
They can implement strict social distancing measures.
and how long do you think that can go on without destroying
what we know as civilization? :-)
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus.
The normal flu virus does at least have a vaccine available
which can attenuate this spread.
The actual effectiveness of this is strongly debated by real doctors.
While I get my flu shot every year I know a number of doctors who say'
it is a meaningless practice as by the time the flu vaccine is ready
the flu has mutated into something completely different. (One just
said that to me last week.)
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
as ordinary flu virus.
Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
All the initiatives they are doing are not so much to
reduce the number of people that will get it but to reduce
the number of people that will get it at the same time. Aka
they are trying to spread it out over a longer time to enable
hospitals to handle.
Yes, that's exactly what the plan is. However, one problem with that
plan is that the NHS has suffered cutbacks over the last decade and
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51914490
which is to do with available ventilators.
(I've changed that to bbc.com for people outside of the UK in case the
bbc.co.uk version isn't available to you.)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Politicians can be more or less honest about that.
And that bit they have said upfront in media interviews.
Q: How do you tell when a politician is lying?
A: His lips move.
Post by Simon Clubley
Unfortunately, there is serious concern that, if the UK government's
plan to wait until it gets worse before implementing the same drastic
measures that other countries have done does not work, then it will be
too late to implement those plans effectively.
Don't forget that actions taken today are not designed to affect
tomorrow's infected count, but the count 14 days from when those
actions are taken.
That means if it becomes _really_ obvious in the near future that the
situation is now out of control, then it's about 2 weeks too late to
implement the plans that would have reduced those infected numbers.
bill
Dave Froble
2020-03-17 00:57:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
what they want to do.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
That's a serious concern. If that's true, it looks like we are going
to be going through all this again next winter until the vaccine
is ready.
Not holding out much hope for that. There have already been reports
that the virus has mutated at least once.
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I don't know what they want to do.
I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
They can implement strict social distancing measures.
and how long do you think that can go on without destroying
what we know as civilization? :-)
That shows some dubious thinking ....

How do you define "civilization"?

Does civilization depend upon:

Activities with many people very close to each other?

People with an active disease joining into close situations, such as
work, and such?

It is possible that humans have been extremely lucky so far. With
global travel, things can spread quickly.

People may have to adapt to practices that can avoid rapid spread of
disease. Don't have any answers right now.
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-17 01:24:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
There are reports circulating within the UK that this is exactly
what they want to do.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
   This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
That's a serious concern. If that's true, it looks like we are going
to be going through all this again next winter until the vaccine
is ready.
Not holding out much hope for that.  There have already been reports
that the virus has mutated at least once.
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I don't know what they want to do.
I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
They can implement strict social distancing measures.
and how long do you think that can go on without destroying
what we know as civilization?  :-)
That shows some dubious thinking ....
How do you define "civilization"?
Activities with many people very close to each other?
I am not the one who has been running around spouting the nonsense
"It takes a village." for the past two decades.
Post by Dave Froble
People with an active disease joining into close situations, such as
work, and such?
Goes on every day.
Post by Dave Froble
It is possible that humans have been extremely lucky so far.  With
global travel, things can spread quickly.
Yeah, and open borders just make it a lot easier.
Post by Dave Froble
People may have to adapt to practices that can avoid rapid spread of
disease.  Don't have any answers right now.
Gonna see a lot of that. For almost a year now LinkedIn has been
buried in articles about businesses moving away from remote work.
Now they are being forced into it for survival. Wait till they
see that the work can still get done and at a substantial savings.
But that leads to another change. People who work better alone
as opposed to people who work best in teams.

We are headed for a brave new world.

bill
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-16 20:03:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus.
It seems to be much more. Also, the death rate is higher.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
All the initiatives they are doing are not so much to
reduce the number of people that will get it but to reduce
the number of people that will get it at the same time.
Right.
Craig A. Berry
2020-03-16 23:26:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus.
It seems to be much more. Also, the death rate is higher.
It is definitely not a flu virus; it is a coronavirus. It is less
contagious but more lethal than the seasonal flu. The mortality rate
may be similar to the 1918 flu pandemic. Then they couldn't do DNA
sequencing of the virus (ever, much less in a matter of weeks), but also
didn't travel as far and as fast as we do. We also have resources to
support someone who is struggling to breathe that weren't available back
then, but those resources will run out if more than a small percentage
of the population needs them at once. They already have in Italy and
other places.
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
All the initiatives they are doing are not so much to
reduce the number of people that will get it but to reduce
the number of people that will get it at the same time.
Right.
Yes, flatten the curve. If your life doesn't depend on it, the lives of
many others do. Practice social isolation (which I figure comes
naturally to most of the geeks here). If you are well provided for
yourself, buy a gift certificate at a local restaurant so its cash flow
doesn't crater as fast as the stock market did. Here in the US, where
the social safety net has gigantic holes in it, send money to
organizations that feed people and provide other basic services; *lots*
more people whose livelihoods have mostly evaporated overnight will need
assistance.

There are a lot of resources around. I've found this one to be one of
the best:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu
MG
2020-03-17 14:17:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus
No, it's not. It's a respiratory virus, but not "a type of
flu virus".
Post by Arne Vajhøj
The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
as ordinary flu virus.
Also incorrect. If it had spread like that, it would've been
everywhere already.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
Because many countries were too busy ridiculing and deriding
countries that took adequate measures as being "draconian".
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Politicians can be more or less honest about that.
Honest, or brazen?


- MG
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-17 15:02:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus
No, it's not.  It's a respiratory virus, but not "a type of
flu virus".
OK
Post by Arne Vajhøj
The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
as ordinary flu virus.
Also incorrect.  If it had spread like that, it would've been
everywhere already.
The normal seasonal flu supposedly has a R0 of 1.3.

WHO estimates for R0 for COVID-19 is 1.4-2.5. Other
estimates are slightly higher.

So if defining contagious as R0 then it is at least
as contagious as normal seasonal flu.

(R0 is basically how many other each ill person infect)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
Because many countries were too busy ridiculing and deriding
countries that took adequate measures as being "draconian".
Until an effective vaccine becomes available, then draconian
measures will likely just impact how fast people get
it and not if they get it.

Draconian measures may still make a lot of sense to keep
infection rate withing hospital capacity.

But I think people are kidding themselves if they
think "if just the government does XYZ then I will not
get it". Until an effective vaccine is developed the
chances are 25% or 50% or 75% to get it.

People like to be in control of their own destiny. But
we are not always in control. We can hope to be lucky
(this mornings news is that fatality rate is dropping,
which may just reflect that more with just light
symptoms are being diagnosed with it) or we can pray
to god if we are religious.

And my take is that this is the bottom line: we should follow
advice from the professionals and then we can hope/pray for
the best.

Arne
MG
2020-03-17 16:33:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
The normal seasonal flu supposedly has a R0 of 1.3.
WHO estimates for R0 for COVID-19 is 1.4-2.5. Other
estimates are slightly higher.
So if defining contagious as R0 then it is at least
as contagious as normal seasonal flu.
(R0 is basically how many other each ill person infect)
You can look up information on the WHO website, Wikipedia
and so forth, but I think you're overlooking the fact that
most types of influenza are fully airborne, while corona
isn't and is mostly carried over by 'droplets'.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Until an effective vaccine becomes available, then draconian
measures will likely just impact how fast people get
it and not if they get it.
That's not the experience of, say, Hong Kong. But keep
arrogantly insisting on your "it's just a flu" mantras.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
People like to be in control of their own destiny. But
we are not always in control.
Then go out there and contract it and be part of the
experiment for "herd immunity". You're already
exhibiting a nice herd mentality.

- MG
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-18 13:06:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Arne Vajhøj
The normal seasonal flu supposedly has a R0 of 1.3.
WHO estimates for R0 for COVID-19 is 1.4-2.5. Other
estimates are slightly higher.
So if defining contagious as R0 then it is at least
as contagious as normal seasonal flu.
(R0 is basically how many other each ill person infect)
You can look up information on the WHO website, Wikipedia
and so forth, but I think you're overlooking the fact that
most types of influenza are fully airborne, while corona
isn't and is mostly carried over by 'droplets'.
Yes.

But they can stick around on surfaces for a long time.

They don't know exactly how long for SARS-Cov-2/Covid-19
but other corona viruses can stay around for a long time.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

<quote>
Some studies on other coronaviruses, including Sars and Mers, found they
can survive on metal, glass and plastic for as long as nine days, unless
they are properly disinfected. Some can even hang around for up to 28
days in low temperatures.
</quote>

So it is not just whether anybody is coughing on you, but also whether
you touch anything touched by somebody else within X days.
Post by MG
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Until an effective vaccine becomes available, then draconian
measures will likely just impact how fast people get
it and not if they get it.
That's not the experience of, say, Hong Kong.  But keep
arrogantly insisting on your "it's just a flu" mantras.
It certainly has a much higher fatality rate than seasonal
flu.

Nobody know exactly how much higher yet.

Seasonal flu is 0.1%.

First estimates in the 3-4% range was just deaths among
those receiving treatment and that is obviously overestimating
as those with mild symptoms do not require treatment.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

guesses based on Chinese experience on:

0-14 yo : 0.0%
14-44 yo : 0.5%
45-64 yo : 0.5%
65+ yo : 2.7%

The UK chief medical officer guesses on below 1% per:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/17/what-is-coronavirus-cure-mortality-rate-covid-19-guide

Arne
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-18 14:47:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
But they can stick around on surfaces for a long time.
Small numbers in the lab. Whether this is infectious in the wild is
another question.
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-18 14:56:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
But they can stick around on surfaces for a long time.
Small numbers in the lab. Whether this is infectious in the wild is
another question.
Most experts emphasize the need to wash hands a lot to reduce
infection risk.

I believe that is because they fear infection from touching things.

Arne
MG
2020-03-18 18:45:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Small numbers in the lab. Whether this is infectious in the wild is
another question.
The Minister of Health in the Dutch parliament collapsed a few
minutes ago, during a parliamentary debate about the epidemic.

<https://www.geenstijl.nl/5152466/minister-bruins-stort-in-tijdens-coronadebat>

Maybe it was stress, maybe also not...

- MG
Dave Froble
2020-03-18 22:15:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Small numbers in the lab. Whether this is infectious in the wild is
another question.
The Minister of Health in the Dutch parliament collapsed a few
minutes ago, during a parliamentary debate about the epidemic.
<https://www.geenstijl.nl/5152466/minister-bruins-stort-in-tijdens-coronadebat>
Maybe it was stress, maybe also not...
- MG
That's perhaps making a strong statement ???
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-18 22:20:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Small numbers in the lab. Whether this is infectious in the wild is
another question.
The Minister of Health in the Dutch parliament collapsed a few
minutes ago, during a parliamentary debate about the epidemic.
<https://www.geenstijl.nl/5152466/minister-bruins-stort-in-tijdens-coronadebat>
Maybe it was stress, maybe also not...
Friedrich Merz, one of the candidates for the successor of Angela Merkel
(and probably the worst one in my opinion) has been tested positive for
the corona virus.
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-17 16:52:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Arne Vajhøj
This is a type of flu virus. It is at least as contagious as
ordinary flu virus
No, it's not.  It's a respiratory virus, but not "a type of
flu virus".
OK
Post by Arne Vajhøj
The obvious conclusion is that it will spread at least as much
as ordinary flu virus.
Also incorrect.  If it had spread like that, it would've been
everywhere already.
The normal seasonal flu supposedly has a R0 of 1.3.
WHO estimates for R0 for COVID-19 is 1.4-2.5. Other
estimates are slightly higher.
So if defining contagious as R0 then it is at least
as contagious as normal seasonal flu.
(R0 is basically how many other each ill person infect)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
Because many countries were too busy ridiculing and deriding
countries that took adequate measures as being "draconian".
Until an effective vaccine becomes available, then draconian
measures will likely just impact how fast people get
it and not if they get it.
Draconian measures may still make a lot of sense to keep
infection rate withing hospital capacity.
But I think people are kidding themselves if they
think "if just the government does XYZ then I will not
get it". Until an effective vaccine is developed the
chances are 25% or 50% or 75% to get it.
People like to be in control of their own destiny. But
we are not always in control. We can hope to be lucky
(this mornings news is that fatality rate is dropping,
which may just reflect that more with just light
symptoms are being diagnosed with it) or we can pray
to god if we are religious.
And my take is that this is the bottom line: we should follow
advice from the professionals and then we can hope/pray for
the best.
And another one to chew on. People have complained because the
labs doing the testing were limited and they thought all labs
should be in the game. So the government opened it up. We are
now seeing numerous (and growing) reports of false negatives.
That is much worse than a false positive as it puts another
infection vector back into the general population and gives
them the notion that they are safe.

bill
MG
2020-03-17 17:02:51 UTC
Permalink
And another one to chew on.  People have complained because the
labs doing the testing were limited and they thought all labs
should be in the game.  So the government opened it up.  We are
now seeing numerous (and growing) reports of false negatives.
That is much worse than a false positive as it puts another
infection vector back  into the general population and gives
them the notion that they are safe.
Very good point and the arrogance and belittlement are already
a bit problem.

- MG
Dave Froble
2020-03-17 19:44:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Bill Gunshannon
And another one to chew on. People have complained because the
labs doing the testing were limited and they thought all labs
should be in the game. So the government opened it up. We are
now seeing numerous (and growing) reports of false negatives.
That is much worse than a false positive as it puts another
infection vector back into the general population and gives
them the notion that they are safe.
Very good point and the arrogance and belittlement are already
a bit problem.
- MG
What about the report about fake testing kits? It just goes to
demonstrate, once again, how little care some have for other people.

"Hey, kit says I don't have it." So now I'll go out and infect other
people.

Maybe this is a bit too much, but, there may be some justification for
tar, feathers, and lynching. People could die from such activities, and
the culprits will get off with a fine and slap on wrist.
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-17 21:50:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
What about the report about fake testing kits? It just goes to
demonstrate, once again, how little care some have for other people.
And people buying up toilet paper and selling it on eBay.
Post by Dave Froble
Maybe this is a bit too much, but, there may be some justification for
tar, feathers, and lynching. People could die from such activities, and
the culprits will get off with a fine and slap on wrist.
There is a lot of fake news on this topic, spreading much faster than
the virus itself. Today I heard that such fake news is 142 times as
likely to be shared on social media. (It pretty much conforms to the
definition of a virus itself.) This is not just something that got
garbled, but deliberate fraud, such as inventing quotes and attaching
them to respected institutions.
Dave Froble
2020-03-18 13:03:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
What about the report about fake testing kits? It just goes to
demonstrate, once again, how little care some have for other people.
And people buying up toilet paper and selling it on eBay.
Not a problem. Bidet. (I think I spelled that correctly.)
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
Maybe this is a bit too much, but, there may be some justification for
tar, feathers, and lynching. People could die from such activities, and
the culprits will get off with a fine and slap on wrist.
There is a lot of fake news on this topic, spreading much faster than
the virus itself. Today I heard that such fake news is 142 times as
likely to be shared on social media. (It pretty much conforms to the
definition of a virus itself.) This is not just something that got
garbled, but deliberate fraud, such as inventing quotes and attaching
them to respected institutions.
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-17 21:45:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Until an effective vaccine becomes available, then draconian
measures will likely just impact how fast people get
it and not if they get it.
Right.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Draconian measures may still make a lot of sense to keep
infection rate withing hospital capacity.
Right; that is the justification usually given.
MG
2020-04-09 12:03:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
This is a type of flu virus.
[...]
Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
One of the great things of Usenet is that old messages can't
be edited or deleted.

The United States Department of Health and Human Services Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published this recently:
<https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article>

As far as what can be done: Italy's lockdown measures are yielding
results, as the growth in new infection cases is decreasing:
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/italy-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-infections-since-march-13>


- MG
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-04-09 12:18:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I am pretty sure that I know what they can do: very little.
This is a type of flu virus.
[...]
Conclusion seems obvious: most will eventually get it.
One of the great things of Usenet is that old messages can't
be edited or deleted.
The United States Department of Health and Human Services Centers
<https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article>
As far as what can be done: Italy's lockdown measures are yielding
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/italy-reports-fewest-new-coronavirus-infections-since-march-13>
It is too early to make any connection between their look down and
any reduction in infection cases. It could also be that enough
people have had the infection to reach a flock-imunity.

The reason for a lock-down is not to prevent anyoine from getting
the infection, it is to keep the number having the infection at
the same time low enough so they can be taken care of. As Arne
wrote, most will eventually get it...
Post by MG
 - MG
MG
2020-04-09 12:34:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
It is too early to make any connection between their look down and
any reduction in infection cases. It could also be that enough
people have had the infection to reach a flock-imunity.
With regard to "flock immunity" (interesting wording, I might say),
are you volunteering in this experiment, too?
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
The reason for a lock-down is not to prevent anyoine from getting
the infection, it is to keep the number having the infection at
the same time low enough so they can be taken care of.
That makes no sense. It's not an 'either/or' issue here.
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
As Arne wrote, most will eventually get it...
In Sweden, sure. I hope the Netherlands and other countries
impose a travel ban on Sweden, for their incredible negligence.

<https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8177607/STILL-Sweden-doesnt-learn-Public-continue-groups-life-goes-on.html>

- MG
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-09 14:16:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
It is too early to make any connection between their look down and
any reduction in infection cases. It could also be that enough
people have had the infection to reach a flock-imunity.
With regard to "flock immunity" (interesting wording, I might say),
are you volunteering in this experiment, too?
It may be the reality.

2 days ago the Danish health authorities published an estimate
(based on blood tests in Denmark and information from Germany and
Iceland) that 30-80 times as many people may have been infected
as have been seeking medical help and tested positive for
the virus.

That is actually pretty good news.

Because that means that instead of 5600+ (5635 was the official
number yesterday) infected it is is really 0.2-0.5 million.
Which besides the obvious much smaller fatality rate also
means that the spread will stop naturally pretty soon.

And I think everybody living on this planet are part of the
experiment whether they like it or not.
Post by MG
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
The reason for a lock-down is not to prevent anyoine from getting
the infection, it is to keep the number having the infection at
the same time low enough so they can be taken care of.
That makes no sense.  It's not an 'either/or' issue here.
It is the reason given by both experts and politicians.
Post by MG
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
As Arne wrote, most will eventually get it...
In Sweden, sure.  I hope the Netherlands and other countries
impose a travel ban on Sweden, for their incredible negligence.
<https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8177607/STILL-Sweden-doesnt-learn-Public-continue-groups-life-goes-on.html>
Well the numbers are:

cases per 1M deaths per 1M
Netherlands 1270 140
Sweden 905 79

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So ....

Arne
Scott Dorsey
2020-04-09 22:03:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
2 days ago the Danish health authorities published an estimate
(based on blood tests in Denmark and information from Germany and
Iceland) that 30-80 times as many people may have been infected
as have been seeking medical help and tested positive for
the virus.
That is actually pretty good news.
It is sort of good news. It does mean that the spread is less likely to
continue much longer. But it also means that all the currently released
statistics are meaningless and that nobody really has a good idea how the
thing is propagating.

It's also a thing that can likely be proven at some point in the future
with an antibody test... but we don't even have enough virus tests to
identify the people who are currently infected right now, let alone
antibody tests to give everyone to figure out who had previously been
infected.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
And I think everybody living on this planet are part of the
experiment whether they like it or not.
This is the general nature of life.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-04-09 22:23:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Scott Dorsey
Post by Arne Vajhøj
2 days ago the Danish health authorities published an estimate
(based on blood tests in Denmark and information from Germany and
Iceland) that 30-80 times as many people may have been infected
as have been seeking medical help and tested positive for
the virus.
That is actually pretty good news.
It is sort of good news. It does mean that the spread is less likely to
continue much longer. But it also means that all the currently released
statistics are meaningless and that nobody really has a good idea how the
thing is propagating.
Correct. Comparing statistics from different countries is meaningless
before the numbers has been analyzed and the statistics has been evened
out between the countries.

Some countries detects Corona virus in the post-mortem and include them
in the statistics.

Some counties only count those that had a Corona virus detected *before*
they died.

In some cases it can be hard to tell if the person actually died from the
Corona virus even if they had it, becuse they had so many other issues.

And so on. A lot of coordinating and analysing of the numbers and
statistics has to be doen when this is over.
Post by Scott Dorsey
It's also a thing that can likely be proven at some point in the future
with an antibody test... but we don't even have enough virus tests to
identify the people who are currently infected right now, let alone
antibody tests to give everyone to figure out who had previously been
infected.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
And I think everybody living on this planet are part of the
experiment whether they like it or not.
This is the general nature of life.
--scott
a***@yahoo.com
2020-04-09 22:32:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Scott Dorsey
Post by Arne Vajhøj
2 days ago the Danish health authorities published an estimate
(based on blood tests in Denmark and information from Germany and
Iceland) that 30-80 times as many people may have been infected
as have been seeking medical help and tested positive for
the virus.
That is actually pretty good news.
It is sort of good news. It does mean that the spread is less likely to
continue much longer. But it also means that all the currently released
statistics are meaningless and that nobody really has a good idea how the
thing is propagating.
Correct. Comparing statistics from different countries is meaningless
before the numbers has been analyzed and the statistics has been evened
out between the countries.
Some countries detects Corona virus in the post-mortem and include them
in the statistics.
Some counties only count those that had a Corona virus detected *before*
they died.
In some cases it can be hard to tell if the person actually died from the
Corona virus even if they had it, becuse they had so many other issues.
And so on. A lot of coordinating and analysing of the numbers and
statistics has to be doen when this is over.
Post by Scott Dorsey
It's also a thing that can likely be proven at some point in the future
with an antibody test... but we don't even have enough virus tests to
identify the people who are currently infected right now, let alone
antibody tests to give everyone to figure out who had previously been
infected.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
And I think everybody living on this planet are part of the
experiment whether they like it or not.
This is the general nature of life.
--scott
In case of Sweden your should hope that official statistics of "Total cases" is off by factor of 50-100 rather than by factor of 10. If it's factor of 10 then your country is in deep sheet.
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-04-09 22:46:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by a***@yahoo.com
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Scott Dorsey
Post by Arne Vajhøj
2 days ago the Danish health authorities published an estimate
(based on blood tests in Denmark and information from Germany and
Iceland) that 30-80 times as many people may have been infected as
have been seeking medical help and tested positive for the virus.
That is actually pretty good news.
It is sort of good news. It does mean that the spread is less
likely to continue much longer. But it also means that all the
currently released statistics are meaningless and that nobody really
has a good idea how the thing is propagating.
Correct. Comparing statistics from different countries is meaningless
before the numbers has been analyzed and the statistics has been
evened out between the countries.
Some countries detects Corona virus in the post-mortem and include
them in the statistics.
Some counties only count those that had a Corona virus detected
*before* they died.
In some cases it can be hard to tell if the person actually died from
the Corona virus even if they had it, becuse they had so many other
issues.
And so on. A lot of coordinating and analysing of the numbers and
statistics has to be doen when this is over.
Post by Scott Dorsey
It's also a thing that can likely be proven at some point in the
future with an antibody test... but we don't even have enough virus
tests to identify the people who are currently infected right now,
let alone antibody tests to give everyone to figure out who had
previously been infected.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
And I think everybody living on this planet are part of the
experiment whether they like it or not.
This is the general nature of life. --scott
In case of Sweden your should hope that official statistics of "Total
cases" is off by factor of 50-100 rather than by factor of 10. If it's
factor of 10 then your country is in deep sheet.
Right, it might very well be. The point it that nobody knows at the
moment. We need the antobody tests to be available in volume before
we can get any statistics on that.

Anyway, the main point is that, trying to just shut out this virus
will not work. It will catch a part of the population large enough
to build a herd-immunity before it will decline. Vaccine will not
be available in time, but yes, vaccine (if available) is also part
of the build-up of herd-immunity.
Scott Dorsey
2020-04-10 00:29:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, the main point is that, trying to just shut out this virus
will not work. It will catch a part of the population large enough
to build a herd-immunity before it will decline. Vaccine will not
be available in time, but yes, vaccine (if available) is also part
of the build-up of herd-immunity.
I don't think the point is to shut the virus out. I think the point is
to reduce the peak number of infected people at any given time, in an
attempt to limit the number of people requiring medical care at any given
time. A million people needing care over the course of a year is not
hard to deal with.. a million people needing care over the course of a
week is impossible to deal with.

To what extent we are doing this, nobody really knows in the US because
we don't have enough testing to know even the basic facts.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-04-10 00:51:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Scott Dorsey
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, the main point is that, trying to just shut out this virus
will not work. It will catch a part of the population large enough
to build a herd-immunity before it will decline. Vaccine will not
be available in time, but yes, vaccine (if available) is also part
of the build-up of herd-immunity.
I don't think the point is to shut the virus out. I think the point is
to reduce the peak number of infected people at any given time, in an
attempt to limit the number of people requiring medical care at any given
time.
Of course. That is why the number infected or dead at a given time is
not that interesting. It is the numbers when it is over that is.

Some years ago we had the "war on drugs", 10 years ago we had the "war
on terrorists", now we have the "war against the virus". We'll see if
the history repeats.
Post by Scott Dorsey
A million people needing care over the course of a year is not
hard to deal with.. a million people needing care over the course of a
week is impossible to deal with.
To what extent we are doing this, nobody really knows in the US because
we don't have enough testing to know even the basic facts.
--scott
Scott Dorsey
2020-04-10 12:04:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Scott Dorsey
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, the main point is that, trying to just shut out this virus
will not work. It will catch a part of the population large enough
to build a herd-immunity before it will decline. Vaccine will not
be available in time, but yes, vaccine (if available) is also part
of the build-up of herd-immunity.
I don't think the point is to shut the virus out. I think the point is
to reduce the peak number of infected people at any given time, in an
attempt to limit the number of people requiring medical care at any given
time.
Of course. That is why the number infected or dead at a given time is
not that interesting. It is the numbers when it is over that is.
The number hospitalized at any given time is very interesting, and that
should track the other two.
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Some years ago we had the "war on drugs", 10 years ago we had the "war
on terrorists", now we have the "war against the virus". We'll see if
the history repeats.
You forgot the War on Poverty.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-04-09 14:20:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
It is too early to make any connection between their look down and
any reduction in infection cases. It could also be that enough
people have had the infection to reach a flock-imunity.
With regard to "flock immunity" (interesting wording, I might say),
Sorry, wrong english expression. It should been "herd immutity".
English is not my native language.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Post by MG
are you volunteering in this experiment, too?
No one has to (or can) either volunteer or totally avoid it.
It is something natural. It is part of the evolution.
And it is not an experiment, of course.
Post by MG
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
The reason for a lock-down is not to prevent anyoine from getting
the infection, it is to keep the number having the infection at
the same time low enough so they can be taken care of.
That makes no sense.
It does makes perfect sense. It is about keeping the number of
infected low enough for the medical care to be able to take care
of anyone needing that. We can never protect anyone from getting
the infection sometimes, just delaying it enough to be able to
cope with it.
Post by MG
It's not an 'either/or' issue here.
I'm not sure what "here" stands for here. Just the point as such
or some geographical place?
Post by MG
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
As Arne wrote, most will eventually get it...
In Sweden, sure.  I hope the Netherlands and other countries
impose a travel ban on Sweden, for their incredible negligence.
It is not negligence. It is a balance between restrictions on daily life
on one side and preventive measures against the virus on the other side.
And since there are no vaccination available now, herd immunity is the
only counter measure available. It is very hard to totaly protect yourself
from getting it. Over time, we can expect more or less everyone to get it.
Or at least as many as it neeed to create a herd immunitu, probaby 50-75 %
of the population.

Lock-down is only a short time thing so that the health care can cope
with those that need hospital care. Many (can be up to 8-9 out of 10)
will have this virus at home, some not even notice that they had it,
just as if they had a normal cold or the yearly flu.
Post by MG
<https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8177607/STILL-Sweden-doesnt-learn-Public-continue-groups-life-goes-on.html>
Right... :-) That writer has not understood a thing. The text under the
pictures says that they show people "ignoring social distancing advice"
but the images still shows people doing just that. And 7 out of 10 images
shows people being outside, which is recomended, while keeping a distance.

I'm not surpriced that, as an example, Trump defends his own actions and
knocks down of those doing differently. He is trying to give the impression
that he is in control, which he probably is not.

The number of people alreading having the Corona virus can be 10 times
higher then the number of registrerd cases since that number is only the
number that needed to seek medical care. Most don't. Nothing different
from the flu that comes every year, more or less. the differnce is that
there is currently no vaccination available against this one, and that
strikes harder against the elderer and those having other issues before.

Anyway, I'm sure there will be many and deep analyses done when we have
come out on "the other side", to to speak. We'll see... :-)


Anyway,
Post by MG
 - MG
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-09 14:57:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, I'm sure there will be many and deep analyses done when we have
come out on "the other side", to to speak. We'll see... :-)
Let's hope your right as opposed to the 1918 pandemic where they
destroyed as many of the records as they could find. Especially
all the medical records in an attempt to bury their heads and deny
how badly it was handled.

Ref:
Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search
for the Virus That Caused It By Gina Kolata. New York: Farrar, Straus
and Giroux, 1999. 330 pp., illustrated.

A very good read.

bill
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-09 15:16:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, I'm sure there will be many and deep analyses done when we have
come out on "the other side", to to speak. We'll see... :-)
Let's hope your right as opposed to the 1918 pandemic where they
destroyed as many of the records as they could find.  Especially
all the medical records in an attempt to bury their heads and deny
how badly it was handled.
A lot of things have changed the last 100 years.

A few things have been invented like TV and internet.

I don't think it would be possible to "forget" about
a pandemic today.

Some politicians may wish that it would
be possible, but ...

Arne
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-09 19:56:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, I'm sure there will be many and deep analyses done when we have
come out on "the other side", to to speak. We'll see... :-)
Let's hope your right as opposed to the 1918 pandemic where they
destroyed as many of the records as they could find.  Especially
all the medical records in an attempt to bury their heads and deny
how badly it was handled.
A lot of things have changed the last 100 years.
A few things have been invented like TV and internet.
I don't think it would be possible to "forget" about
a pandemic today.
Some politicians may wish that it would
be possible, but ...
Nobody forgot the last one. My mother remembered the mass
grave down the hill below the farm she lived on till the
day she died. (Yes, we talked about it!) One of these days
a developer is going to buy up all that farm land and all
hell will break loose when he starts excavating and uncovers
all those bones.

I have been to the Diocesan Cemetery and seen all the graves
from that period. Most people either notice or, if they do,
know what it really means.

It really is worth the price to buy and read the book.

bill
Michael Moroney
2020-04-09 21:48:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Nobody forgot the last one. My mother remembered the mass
grave down the hill below the farm she lived on till the
day she died. (Yes, we talked about it!) One of these days
a developer is going to buy up all that farm land and all
hell will break loose when he starts excavating and uncovers
all those bones.
I have been to the Diocesan Cemetery and seen all the graves
from that period. Most people either notice or, if they do,
know what it really means.
I was exploring a nearby cemetery a couple of years ago and I found two areas
marked with plaques identifying the areas as mass graves of the 1918 epidemic.
At least the victims got buried in a cemetery, but no names were listed.
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-04-09 15:39:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, I'm sure there will be many and deep analyses done when we have
come out on "the other side", to to speak. We'll see... :-)
Let's hope your right as opposed to the 1918 pandemic where they...
Who are "they"? I do not remember seeing that story.
Was this something local somewere?
destroyed as many of the records as they could find.  Especially
all the medical records in an attempt to bury their heads and deny
how badly it was handled.
Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for
the Virus That Caused It By Gina Kolata. New York: Farrar, Straus and
Giroux, 1999. 330 pp., illustrated.
A very good read.
bill
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-09 20:02:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
Anyway, I'm sure there will be many and deep analyses done when we have
come out on "the other side", to to speak. We'll see... :-)
Let's hope your right as opposed to the 1918 pandemic where they...
Who are "they"? I do not remember seeing that story.
Was this something local somewere?
destroyed as many of the records as they could find.  Especially
all the medical records in an attempt to bury their heads and deny
how badly it was handled.
Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search
for the Virus That Caused It By Gina Kolata. New York: Farrar, Straus
and Giroux, 1999. 330 pp., illustrated.
A very good read.
Read the book. It is truly scary. When H1N1 started to rear
its ugly head again a few years ago there was basically no
records. Not even one sample of the virus had been kept in
storage for research. They had to dig up bodies buried in
the permafrost to get samples to even learn what we might be
facing. The book even talks of doctors who, when it was all
over, destroyed all their personal notes on the virus.

bill
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-04-09 16:12:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
cases per 1M deaths per 1M
Netherlands 1270 140
Sweden 905 79
I've spent a lot of time in both countries and speak both languages.

The countries are very different. Apart from microstates and so on,
the Netherlands is the most densely populated country on Earth. Sweden
is bigger than Germany but has only about 10 per cent of the population.

For this reason, and also for other, historical reasons, there is much
more social distancing in Sweden even in normal times. In other words,
different strategies could be appropriate in different countries.
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-09 17:28:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
cases per 1M deaths per 1M
Netherlands 1270 140
Sweden 905 79
I've spent a lot of time in both countries and speak both languages.
The countries are very different. Apart from microstates and so on,
the Netherlands is the most densely populated country on Earth. Sweden
is bigger than Germany but has only about 10 per cent of the population.
For this reason, and also for other, historical reasons, there is much
more social distancing in Sweden even in normal times. In other words,
different strategies could be appropriate in different countries.
Yes.

I will be inclined to say that population density is the most
important factor for how fast Corona virus has spread in an area.

But my point was just that Netherlands blocking Sweden does not
make much sense as Netherlands is actually harder hit than Sweden.

Arne
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-04-09 19:53:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I will be inclined to say that population density is the most
important factor for how fast Corona virus has spread in an area.
But my point was just that Netherlands blocking Sweden does not
make much sense as Netherlands is actually harder hit than Sweden.
Indeed.

Also, the idea of blocking travel between, but not within, similarly
affected countries doesn't really make sense.
Dave Froble
2020-04-09 20:58:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I will be inclined to say that population density is the most
important factor for how fast Corona virus has spread in an area.
But my point was just that Netherlands blocking Sweden does not
make much sense as Netherlands is actually harder hit than Sweden.
Indeed.
Also, the idea of blocking travel between, but not within, similarly
affected countries doesn't really make sense.
Makes total sense ....

Politicians like to appear to be "doing" something. Doesn't matter to
them if it's worth doing. Public exposure is everything.
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-09 21:54:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Arne Vajhøj
I will be inclined to say that population density is the most
important factor for how fast Corona virus has spread in an area.
But my point was just that Netherlands blocking Sweden does not
make much sense as Netherlands is actually harder hit than Sweden.
Indeed.
Also, the idea of blocking travel between, but not within, similarly
affected countries doesn't really make sense.
Makes total sense ....
Politicians like to appear to be "doing" something.  Doesn't matter to
them if it's worth doing.  Public exposure is everything.
Yep. But (at least in some parts of the world) the people vote for them.

Some say that in a democracy people have the politicians they deserve.

Other may think that is a pretty cruel verdict.

:-)

Arne
MG
2020-04-10 11:13:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Also, the idea of blocking travel between, but not within, similarly
affected countries doesn't really make sense.
It makes perfect sense. Careless countries are already being
punished with travel bans. Belgium has closed the borders with
the Netherlands, because of their negligence and inaction for
very long.

If Swedes want to engage in experimentation, they by all means
should, but not then spread it elsehwere.

- MG
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-04-10 11:34:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Also, the idea of blocking travel between, but not within, similarly
affected countries doesn't really make sense.
It makes perfect sense.  Careless countries are already being
punished with travel bans.  Belgium has closed the borders with
the Netherlands, because of their negligence and inaction for
very long.
If Swedes want to engage in experimentation, they by all means
should, but not then spread it elsehwere.
 - MG
There is no "experimentation" going on here. We have authorities that
makes a sound balance between lock-down and what that can cause. We
need to let this flu have it's way in a controlled way, it can not
be stopped in a short time. Long term there migth be effective
vaccins, but there is not today.

But we'll see when this has passed away. I'm sure that analyses
will then show what actions were effective and what were not.
MG
2020-04-10 11:38:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
There is no "experimentation" going on here. We have authorities that
makes a sound balance between lock-down and what that can cause. We
need to let this flu have it's way in a controlled way, it can not
be stopped in a short time. Long term there migth be effective
vaccins, but there is not today.
Yes, you, indeed. Swedes should lock themselves in their own
country during this experiment.

You know, Boris Johnson (the PM of the UK, in case you might
not know... since you're not aware of many things, like the
Spanish Flu) once took the same attitude and look where he's
now.
Post by Jan-Erik Söderholm
But we'll see when this has passed away. I'm sure that analyses
will then show what actions were effective and what were not.
It hasn't passed away, this might just be the start and very
little is still known about this virus.

Good luck with your experiment.

- MG
MG
2020-04-10 11:35:45 UTC
Permalink
[...] Careless countries are already being punished with travel
bans.  Belgium has closed the borders with the Netherlands,
because of their negligence and inaction for very long.
As a matter of fact, the other day I wrote that Finland imposed
restrictions on travel from Sweden to Finland. So this might
actually already be the case.

- MG
Scott Dorsey
2020-04-10 12:07:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
[...] Careless countries are already being punished with travel
bans.  Belgium has closed the borders with the Netherlands,
because of their negligence and inaction for very long.
As a matter of fact, the other day I wrote that Finland imposed
restrictions on travel from Sweden to Finland. So this might
actually already be the case.
Didn't they try that in 1809?
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."
MG
2020-04-10 12:20:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
As a matter of fact, the other day I wrote that Finland imposed
restrictions on travel from Sweden to Finland.  So this might
actually already be the case.
My apologies, instead of "wrote" I naturally meant "read".

- MG

Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-04-10 11:30:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Also, the idea of blocking travel between, but not within, similarly
affected countries doesn't really make sense.
It makes perfect sense. Careless countries are already being
punished with travel bans. Belgium has closed the borders with
the Netherlands, because of their negligence and inaction for
very long.
Sorry, should have said just "similar countries", i.e. similarly
affected AND with similar restrictions.
a***@yahoo.com
2020-04-09 22:22:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Arne Vajhøj
cases per 1M deaths per 1M
Netherlands 1270 140
Sweden 905 79
I've spent a lot of time in both countries and speak both languages.
The countries are very different. Apart from microstates and so on,
the Netherlands is the most densely populated country on Earth.
I suppose it was true as recently as begging of this century. Or, at least, 1990. But it's no longer true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density#Main_table
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Sweden
is bigger than Germany but has only about 10 per cent of the population.
For this reason, and also for other, historical reasons, there is much
more social distancing in Sweden even in normal times. In other words,
different strategies could be appropriate in different countries.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-04-10 05:34:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by a***@yahoo.com
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Apart from microstates and so on,
the Netherlands is the most densely populated country on Earth.
I suppose it was true as recently as begging of this century. Or, at least, 1990. But it's no longer true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population_density#Main_table
Right. Excluding "microstates and so on" (which depends on the
definition, of course), I see that it has been surpassed by South Korea
and Bangladesh, but it is still the most densely populated country in
Europe.
John Reagan
2020-03-16 17:00:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
Arne
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence. This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
bill
Haven't that report on our US-based media, but the Sun reported it

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11164977/millions-uk-coronavirus-herd-immunity/
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-16 17:14:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Reagan
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
Arne
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence. This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
bill
Haven't that report on our US-based media, but the Sun reported it
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11164977/millions-uk-coronavirus-herd-immunity/
I heard it on WCBS 770 out of NYC.

bill
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-16 17:15:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by John Reagan
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
Arne
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.  This compared to a a report (also in the media)
the the CDC has said recovered cases show no sign of any
kind of antibodies.
bill
Haven't that report on our US-based media, but the Sun reported it
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11164977/millions-uk-coronavirus-herd-immunity/
I heard it on WCBS 770 out of NYC.
bill
Oops, that's 880. 770 is WABC.

bill
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-16 20:02:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
Yes, Boris Johnson. What did you expect? First, it is not clear if one
can influence whether one gets a mild case. Second, it is not clear
what fraction of those would be immune. There are certainly cases of
people getting infected more than once.
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-16 20:57:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Bill Gunshannon
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
Yes, Boris Johnson. What did you expect? First, it is not clear if one
can influence whether one gets a mild case. Second, it is not clear
what fraction of those would be immune. There are certainly cases of
people getting infected more than once.
There are reports of that.

But there are some skepticism about whether that is actually the
case.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/487436-can-you-get-coronavirus-twice

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-reinfection.html

Arne
Simon Clubley
2020-03-17 13:33:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Bill Gunshannon
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
Yes, Boris Johnson. What did you expect? First, it is not clear if one
can influence whether one gets a mild case. Second, it is not clear
what fraction of those would be immune. There are certainly cases of
people getting infected more than once.
Phillip, what's the reaction by the German public to the news that
Trump tried to get a German company developing a vaccine to move to
the US and then attempted to monopolise the company's output for the
US only if they were successful in creating a vaccine ?

That last bit has been walked back BTW, but there's still been a
sudden change in leadership of the German company in question.

I know what the media are saying, but does that reflect what the
German people themselves are saying ?

For anyone else not aware of this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/not-for-sale-anger-in-germany-at-report-trump-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/europe/cornonavirus-vaccine-us-germany.html

In trying to solve this, I really hope everyone works together for
the benefit of humanity in general and that no-one (including the UK
government) attempts to pull a stunt like the one alleged to have
happened above in those reports.

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-17 14:24:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Phillip, what's the reaction by the German public to the news that
Trump tried to get a German company developing a vaccine to move to
the US and then attempted to monopolise the company's output for the
US only if they were successful in creating a vaccine ?
It confirmed the impression that he is a dork. Both the government and
the company issued statements that their goal is to develop a vaccine
and make it generally available.
Post by Simon Clubley
I know what the media are saying, but does that reflect what the
German people themselves are saying ?
Well, I don't get out much these days, so I really don't know what the
buzz is. Anyone who has commented has commented that Trump's plan are
stupid, and everyone is confident that he won't be able to pull it off.
Jan-Erik Söderholm
2020-03-17 14:50:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Bill Gunshannon
I heard a report on the news over here (being from our typical
media must be taken with a very large grain of salt) that UK
officials want everyone to get at least a mild case of the
virus so that they develop natural antibodies to prevent a
recurrence.
Yes, Boris Johnson. What did you expect? First, it is not clear if one
can influence whether one gets a mild case. Second, it is not clear
what fraction of those would be immune. There are certainly cases of
people getting infected more than once.
Phillip, what's the reaction by the German public to the news that
Trump tried to get a German company...
One interesting point of facts is that the guy owning the majority
of that vaccine company (CureVac), was one of the founders of SAP.

Ho got to much money from the SAP business, found a football club in
the fifth division, bought that and they are now in first division.
I think they call it the "plastic team" since it is just players
pulled together using his money.

It seems that he has gained a bit more respect now since he gave
Trump "the finger", more or less, the reports are telling slightly
differnt stories...




developing a vaccine to move to
Post by Simon Clubley
the US and then attempted to monopolise the company's output for the
US only if they were successful in creating a vaccine ?
That last bit has been walked back BTW, but there's still been a
sudden change in leadership of the German company in question.
I know what the media are saying, but does that reflect what the
German people themselves are saying ?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/not-for-sale-anger-in-germany-at-report-trump-seeking-exclusive-coronavirus-vaccine-deal
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/world/europe/cornonavirus-vaccine-us-germany.html
In trying to solve this, I really hope everyone works together for
the benefit of humanity in general and that no-one (including the UK
government) attempts to pull a stunt like the one alleged to have
happened above in those reports.
Simon.
Michael Moroney
2020-03-16 13:50:58 UTC
Permalink
The US state of Massachusetts is on a near-lockdown. Gatherings of 25 or more
people banned, schools closed, restaurants closed except takeout and delivery,
grocery stores sold out of some of the oddest things.

More on topic is VSI Bolton offices closed for 2 weeks, you gotta work from
home.
Dave Froble
2020-03-13 19:28:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Simon Clubley
For those of us that survive 2020.
I was reluctant to raise this, given that it is totally off topic,
but it affects everyone here and I was wondering what the situation
is really like on the ground around the planet compared to what the
media are and are not reporting.
I've marked the thread as off-topic and started a new thread so that
it's easy to kill file or skip over.
Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level concern
but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the various
hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is not reacting
strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real feeling that
things could escalate out of control over the coming weeks due to that.
How are things in your part of the planet ?
I follow US, Denmark, Poland and Italy pretty close.
* Most orgs are ordering IT people and other "paper pushers" to
work from home
There are multiple benefits from this, but, it's not always optimal.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* Many schools and universities are closed
We are at the point where much education does not require gatherings.
However, as with many things, there are those who mis-use things, and
will cry "foul" when their mis-use is gored.

One example is people who consider school a child care system. It
isn't, but some use it as such.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* Many places has put restrictions on public gatherings
prohibiting either >1000 or >100 people
Under special circumstances this is the correct thing to do. Disease
respects no boundaries, or freedoms, or anything else.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* Travel had come to a total standstill: some countries
does not allow entry, companies are cancelling business
travel, airlines are cancelling flights, people do not
want to travel
See special circumstances above.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* politicians like to go on TV and pretend they can control
the situation
Politicians are almost always "theater"
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* people are stocking up on supplies, but true panic is
rare
I live out in the boonies and am not normally around people. Yes, there
is the requirement of shopping. I think. Amazon wants to deliver with
drones.

This current problem is not new. When I was young, STDs were not a
major issue. Then along came AIDS and such. People have for the most
part learned that when one sleeps with another, they also are sleeping
with all other contacts, and all their contacts, and such. One could
argue that you're sleeping with most of the world. Then there was other
things, such as SARS.

Aviation and travel continues to grow. One reads about future aircraft,
pilot, and such needing to grow to meet the ever increasing demand.
More and more people are traveling, and traveling often. With something
as contagious as Covid-19, this quickly becomes a distribution network
that reaches everywhere on the planet.

We need to start thinking of solutions. I seem to recall that travel to
some locations requires one to have certain immunizations up to date.
Perhaps more will be needed in today's and tomorrow's world. Perhaps
certain type of testing should be mandatory for all travelers. Catch
one person infected, and you can stop it there, before it becomes many.

I think containment is a decent solution. At least one we can implement
today. If the human race is going to continue to globetrot, it should
consider the problems and start to plan methods to address contagious
diseases.

You never know when one might come along that is 100% fatal.

One thing pointed out is the number of deaths each year from flu. A
better plan could also reduce this.

Maybe give up handshakes and resort to a small bow, or such.
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-13 21:01:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
Post by Arne Vajhøj
* Most orgs are ordering IT people and other "paper pushers" to
work from home
There are multiple benefits from this, but, it's not always optimal.
If it were, it would be standard. However, under the circumstances,
those who can work from home are lucky. (Depending on your job and
where you live, you might continue to get paid if you stay home even if
you don't work.)
Post by Dave Froble
One example is people who consider school a child care system. It
isn't, but some use it as such.
Really? In most places, children are required to go to school. I don't
think that one can criticize anyone for planning on their children being
in school during certain times.
Post by Dave Froble
This current problem is not new. When I was young, STDs were not a
major issue. Then along came AIDS and such. People have for the most
part learned that when one sleeps with another, they also are sleeping
with all other contacts, and all their contacts, and such. One could
argue that you're sleeping with most of the world.
STDs are really quite different than COVID-19. It is very hard to get
most STDs. Even for most kinds of sex the risk of HIV infection is
small. COVID-19 is much more serious.
Post by Dave Froble
Aviation and travel continues to grow. One reads about future aircraft,
pilot, and such needing to grow to meet the ever increasing demand.
More and more people are traveling, and traveling often. With something
as contagious as Covid-19, this quickly becomes a distribution network
that reaches everywhere on the planet.
True, but remember the plague? Killed, what, one-third of the
population? No planes back then, and no travel faster than a horse;
most travel was on foot.
Post by Dave Froble
We need to start thinking of solutions. I seem to recall that travel to
some locations requires one to have certain immunizations up to date.
That works as long as one is dealing with diseases against which
immunizations exist.
Post by Dave Froble
Perhaps more will be needed in today's and tomorrow's world. Perhaps
certain type of testing should be mandatory for all travelers. Catch
one person infected, and you can stop it there, before it becomes many.
There should be much more of it. One reason it doesn't happen is
because of resistance of people who see it as infringing their freedom.
People, your freedom stops where it affects someone else's freedom, such
as their freedom from disease.
Post by Dave Froble
One thing pointed out is the number of deaths each year from flu. A
better plan could also reduce this.
The "regular" flu has killed more people this year than COVID-19.
(However, that is not a reason to downplay COVID-19; it is much more
contagious, and we don't know how it will develop. Like a sniper on the
loose, knowing that more people will die of the flu, or in traffic
accidents, before he is killed or captured doesn't mean that one
shouldn't report on him and try to protect oneself from him.) There are
probably two main reasons that it is so many. First, many people think
that they have had the flu, but they actually haven't. Some aren't
sure. (The flu is like an orgasm: if you aren't sure whether you've had
it, you haven't.) Thus, they tend to vastly underestimate the
seriousness of the disease, until they get it. Second, many people
don't get vaccinated because they think that vaccines cause autism, or
are a scam so that big pharma can earn easy money, or whatever.
(Frankly, I have little problem with such people getting the disease for
which they refuse a vaccination; the problem is that they infect other
people.)
seasoned_geek
2020-03-14 01:04:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
it, you haven't.) Thus, they tend to vastly underestimate the
seriousness of the disease, until they get it. Second, many people
don't get vaccinated because they think that vaccines cause autism, or
are a scam so that big pharma can earn easy money, or whatever.
(Frankly, I have little problem with such people getting the disease for
which they refuse a vaccination; the problem is that they infect other
people.)
I actually don't get the flu vaccination because I got it twice in my late twenties when everyone was told to and both times I got soooooo sick within 2 days I thought I was going to die. I actually would have went to ER the second time but I was just too sick to make the call.

Any time I've gotten the flu it has never been even a quarter as severe.

No, I'm not allergic to eggs, I eat them all the time. There's just something in that vaccine that tries to kill me. I have a higher percentage chance of survival without the shot.
seasoned_geek
2020-03-14 01:09:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
One example is people who consider school a child care system. It
isn't, but some use it as such.
Really? In most places, children are required to go to school. I don't
think that one can criticize anyone for planning on their children being
in school during certain times.
I believe he is talking about parents who enroll their kids in before/after school programs so they won't have to pay for daycare. Most school days start after parents leave for work and end well before they get home otherwise. It's basically been institutionalized in Chicago.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-14 07:50:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by seasoned_geek
I believe he is talking about parents who enroll their kids in
before/after school programs so they won't have to pay for daycare.
Most school days start after parents leave for work and end well before
they get home otherwise. It's basically been institutionalized in
Chicago.
Pay for daycare? Right, free daycare would be socialism, and so people
vote for Trump rather than Bernie. Got it.
seasoned_geek
2020-03-14 12:24:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by seasoned_geek
I believe he is talking about parents who enroll their kids in
before/after school programs so they won't have to pay for daycare.
Most school days start after parents leave for work and end well before
they get home otherwise. It's basically been institutionalized in
Chicago.
Pay for daycare? Right, free daycare would be socialism, and so people
vote for Trump rather than Bernie. Got it.
No, it's a much bigger problem than that. Parents (and I use that term loosely, biological procreation units would be more accurate) are the absolute worst. They think their only job is to have the kids. After they they it's the government's job to raise them because they are far too busy having a life to actually be parents. The entire universe is supposed to raise their child while they go golfing and shopping and hanging out with friends. Neither of them is supposed to actually stay home and raise the child, that's the government's job. The government is supposed to automatically block all content on television and radio they don't want their kids to hear because they certainly can't be sitting around watching television with the kids they had.

These biological procreation units insist on bringing their screaming, squalling petri dishes of the WHO's hundred most deadly diseases on mega cruise ships where all of the lower decks are sealed, having recycled air like a plane. Once they set foot on board the kids are instantly dropped off with the activities people only to be seen at meal time for the rest of the cruise.

And of course we will not bring up those inexcusable biological entities who INSIST on bringing an infant that cannot operate its jaw to pop its ears ON A (^(*&)(*&ING AIR PLANE! Forcing those who understand how to properly use birth control to endure exactly the thing they properly use birth control to avoid, AND those inexcusable biological entities want that bundle of auditory torture to fly for free!

It's not a matter of who they vote for despite what you attempt to say. This is fallout from the 1990s where nobody had to take responsibility for anything and biological procreation units adopted that criminal philosophy with gusto. They shouldn't have to alter their lives to actually become parents, they only had to have the kid, after that they weren't responsible.

Culturally, during America's Greatest Generation, if both husband and wife had to work to support their lifestyle or just get by, they didn't have kids. It was socially irresponsible. Today they not only have their kids, they have all of them before getting married so the tax payer has to pick up the tab.

I'm all for a Medicare for All type situation. What I, and most other taxpayers are against is "gaming the system." We are also against biological procreation units bringing infants on airplanes and children on cruises we saved to pay for rather than racking up credit card debt ahead of bankruptcy.

But, I will let Dave speak for himself. <Grin>

Please, before you talk out your ass, during Bernie's last run (his 42nd?) for president I was both a big donor and backer. If Hillary hadn't rigged the primary he would be president now. If Trump had been actually interested in enforcing the law instead of just keeping his own ass out of prison Hillary and the heads of the Democratic party in charge of the primary rigging would have all been put in prison for financial fraud.

Parents in modern America are simply inexcusable entities and "gaming the system" really offends those who both pay taxes and play by the rules.

It's an ethics thing.

We have them, they don't.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-14 13:31:18 UTC
Permalink
On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 2:50:04 AM UTC-5, Phillip Helbig (undress to=
seasoned_geek <> writes:=20
Post by seasoned_geek
I believe he is talking about parents who enroll their kids in
before/after school programs so they won't have to pay for daycare.=20
Most school days start after parents leave for work and end well before
they get home otherwise. It's basically been institutionalized in
Chicago.
Pay for daycare? Right, free daycare would be socialism, and so people
vote for Trump rather than Bernie. Got it.
No, it's a much bigger problem than that.
Yes, the USA is broken. We know that.

In civilized countries, there is free or heavily subsidized health care.
There are few stay-at-home parents, not because they are out partying,
but because both are working. With a couple of kids, one needs to be at
home for a few years at most---not worth giving up a career for. As a
result of both working, the standard of living is high. People have
children because they want them and spend a lot of time with them
outside of working hours (which might be only 20--35 hours per week).
Thanks to sex education and readily available contraceptives, there are
practically no unwanted children.
MG
2020-03-14 20:58:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Yes, the USA is broken. We know that.
In civilized countries, there is free or heavily subsidized health care.
There are few stay-at-home parents, not because they are out partying,
but because both are working. With a couple of kids, one needs to be at
home for a few years at most---not worth giving up a career for. As a
result of both working, the standard of living is high. People have
children because they want them and spend a lot of time with them
outside of working hours (which might be only 20--35 hours per week).
Thanks to sex education and readily available contraceptives, there are
practically no unwanted children.
How many children do you have? I hear that in the Federal Republic
the birth rates are rather low, like in much of Western Europe for
that matter.

- MG
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-15 08:38:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by MG
How many children do you have?
4.
Post by MG
I hear that in the Federal Republic
the birth rates are rather low, like in much of Western Europe for
that matter.
Yes. As I said, there are few unwanted children. One can argue that it
should be higher, but that is another issue.
Dave Froble
2020-03-14 23:12:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 2:50:04 AM UTC-5, Phillip Helbig (undress to=
seasoned_geek <> writes:=20
Post by seasoned_geek
I believe he is talking about parents who enroll their kids in
before/after school programs so they won't have to pay for daycare.=20
Most school days start after parents leave for work and end well before
they get home otherwise. It's basically been institutionalized in
Chicago.
Pay for daycare? Right, free daycare would be socialism, and so people
vote for Trump rather than Bernie. Got it.
No, it's a much bigger problem than that.
Yes, the USA is broken. We know that.
Since it's Phillip, maybe I shouldn't ....

Then again ....

The USA is far from perfect. But I read the news daily, sometimes
several times. Just from the news, there are far worse than the USA.

Have we some bad history? Sure who doesn't. (You want to avoid this
subject Phillip.) Sometimes it goes the other way, Custer got his reward.
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
In civilized countries,
You mean like those who come up with the "final solution"?
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
there is free or heavily subsidized health care.
On this I will agree. Government run clinics. Medical personnel as
employees. Somebody walks in the door and needs medical care, it
happens, no questions asked. Only records are computerized medical
records, and available in whichever clinic is visited. All services,
eyes, dental, everything. Appointments only when reasonable. Otherwise
no waiting.

There are those who say it's too expensive. Show me anyone in the USA
that needs care and doesn't get it. No insurance. No money. Hospitals
will still care for them. So it seems we're already paying for it, and
the huge salaries of medical insurance companies, and all the
non-medical things they do. We're possibly already over paying.
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
There are few stay-at-home parents, not because they are out partying,
but because both are working. With a couple of kids, one needs to be at
home for a few years at most---not worth giving up a career for.
My daughter stayed home and raised her children. Home schooled her son
and her nephew. Had a career, but gave it up to raise the kids. All
the kids are doing great.
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
As a
result of both working, the standard of living is high.
Are you sure you're not paying more taxes, and need two incomes?
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
People have
children because they want them and spend a lot of time with them
outside of working hours (which might be only 20--35 hours per week).
20-35 hours per week? Must be nice.
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Thanks to sex education and readily available contraceptives, there are
practically no unwanted children.
Not even the ones from Syria and Africa?
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
seasoned_geek
2020-03-15 05:20:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 2:50:04 AM UTC-5, Phillip Helbig (undress to=
There are those who say it's too expensive. Show me anyone in the USA
that needs care and doesn't get it. No insurance. No money. Hospitals
Ummm no. Well, not entirely accurate. In life threatening situations the hospital is required to treat the patient. In most municipalities a hospital is obligated to provide a certain level of charity care. Varies across the country as to fixed dollar amount of a percentage of gross revenues. Both methods have bankrupted several hospitals in the Chicago area in the past decade. They are close and the buildings abandoned. There are people turned away from both ER and hospitals in general when the hospital has hit its charity cap and the issue isn't life threatening. You would be surprised what they can legally turn away once they have hit that cap.
Post by Dave Froble
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Thanks to sex education and readily available contraceptives, there are
practically no unwanted children.
Not even the ones from Syria and Africa?
I responding to the original note but unwanted pregnancies are high. Well, they are high enough that abortion clinics are still getting shot up and bible thumping terrorists are trying to pack the court to illegally overturn Roe v Wade. (It can't legally. The Constitution explicitly states "birth". One has to change the Constitution.)

Just try being a school principle that authorizes the dispensing of condoms to high school kids in many parts of this country. Ye be unemployed fast.
Dave Froble
2020-03-14 15:26:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by seasoned_geek
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by seasoned_geek
I believe he is talking about parents who enroll their kids in
before/after school programs so they won't have to pay for daycare.
Most school days start after parents leave for work and end well before
they get home otherwise. It's basically been institutionalized in
Chicago.
Pay for daycare? Right, free daycare would be socialism, and so people
vote for Trump rather than Bernie. Got it.
No, it's a much bigger problem than that. Parents (and I use that term loosely, biological procreation units would be more accurate) are the absolute worst. They think their only job is to have the kids. After they they it's the government's job to raise them because they are far too busy having a life to actually be parents. The entire universe is supposed to raise their child while they go golfing and shopping and hanging out with friends. Neither of them is supposed to actually stay home and raise the child, that's the government's job. The government is supposed to automatically block all content on television and radio they don't want their kids to hear because they certainly can't be sitting around watching television with the kids they had.
These biological procreation units insist on bringing their screaming, squalling petri dishes of the WHO's hundred most deadly diseases on mega cruise ships where all of the lower decks are sealed, having recycled air like a plane. Once they set foot on board the kids are instantly dropped off with the activities people only to be seen at meal time for the rest of the cruise.
And of course we will not bring up those inexcusable biological entities who INSIST on bringing an infant that cannot operate its jaw to pop its ears ON A (^(*&)(*&ING AIR PLANE! Forcing those who understand how to properly use birth control to endure exactly the thing they properly use birth control to avoid, AND those inexcusable biological entities want that bundle of auditory torture to fly for free!
It's not a matter of who they vote for despite what you attempt to say. This is fallout from the 1990s where nobody had to take responsibility for anything and biological procreation units adopted that criminal philosophy with gusto. They shouldn't have to alter their lives to actually become parents, they only had to have the kid, after that they weren't responsible.
Culturally, during America's Greatest Generation, if both husband and wife had to work to support their lifestyle or just get by, they didn't have kids. It was socially irresponsible. Today they not only have their kids, they have all of them before getting married so the tax payer has to pick up the tab.
I'm all for a Medicare for All type situation. What I, and most other taxpayers are against is "gaming the system." We are also against biological procreation units bringing infants on airplanes and children on cruises we saved to pay for rather than racking up credit card debt ahead of bankruptcy.
But, I will let Dave speak for himself. <Grin>
Where? The page is already full.
Post by seasoned_geek
Please, before you talk out your ass, during Bernie's last run (his 42nd?) for president I was both a big donor and backer. If Hillary hadn't rigged the primary he would be president now. If Trump had been actually interested in enforcing the law instead of just keeping his own ass out of prison Hillary and the heads of the Democratic party in charge of the primary rigging would have all been put in prison for financial fraud.
Question: What are the 1700 super delegates the democrats allow at their
convention?

Answer: 1700 votes for a candidate favored by the party leaders who
don't give a damn what the people want.

Ya all just show up and pull the leaver, no thinking required.

Donald Trump had to happen, sometimes things have to get worse before
they get better.

Oh, and Bernie is an idiot.

Go ahead, call yourself a socialist. Half the voters don't even know
what socialism is, but they "know" it's a bad word, and sure won't vote
for a socialist. Best way to not get elected. Guess he never learned
to say "it is my intention to do the right thing for the people". Some
people are their own worst enemy.

Oh, look, more room to write, I can keep going.

"Medicare for all". What a terrible idea.

Why, after a dozen years of education, does a doctor then have to run a
business? Terrible idea. What does it produce?

Medicare fraud.
Call people in for an office visit to allow billing insurance company.
Unnecessary procedures.

What do medical insurance premiums fund?

$400,000 mahogany board room table
$1.6 million to put company name on top of tallest building in city
$50 million bizjet for a local company
Multi-million dollar CEO salary

Ok, out of paper again ....
Post by seasoned_geek
Parents in modern America are simply inexcusable entities and "gaming the system" really offends those who both pay taxes and play by the rules.
It's an ethics thing.
We have them, they don't.
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
seasoned_geek
2020-03-15 04:54:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
Oh, and Bernie is an idiot.
He was a smaller idiot that Trump who actually could have beaten him last time. And we all know now a safer idiot.
Post by Dave Froble
"Medicare for all". What a terrible idea.
Why, after a dozen years of education, does a doctor then have to run a
business? Terrible idea. What does it produce?
Medicare fraud.
Call people in for an office visit to allow billing insurance company.
Unnecessary procedures.
Well, having twice worked for a client that holds the world record in Medicare fraud fines I can honestly tell you the doctor's office fraud isn't tip money on the bar bill.

All drug prices are published in Redbook. The drug companies set the price Medicare pays, Medicare is not allowed to negotiate.

During the paper HICFA days, "pharmacies" used a system on a single PC to generate files. They would then send these files to "Medicare billing services" that would print and sign the forms before mailing to Medicare. The would send that _same_ file to _many_ different "Medicare billing services" but they would stagger the delivery dates so the HICFAs all arrived at different times. This buried Medicare in paper and they had to pay within N-days. The exact same services were being billed 7-10 times in one month.

The other huge fraud going on had "pharmacies", many notably in Florida, who rented a store front with some abandoned shelves in it. They bought some gauze and rubbing alcohol from a grocery store and put the few meager packages on the shelves. The real business was using a black market list of legitimate Medicare IDs. They would generate HICFA files for _all_ of those patients "selling" them the most expensive items Medicare would pay for. One man who had never had an amputation (and lived quite a few states away) was sold 4, count them 4, artificial legs and a bunch of other stuff. Nothing actually shipped. They had no inventory. After a few months the group moved to another storefront a few blocks away and sent out all the same files again.

Somewhere in the "60 Minutes" archives you can find a Mike Wallace interview with one of the few to get caught. He wasn't even the biggest one. He was billing Medicare on average $20 million per week. The rules for payment were coded into the system but the system didn't do any database checks to see if there was an ICD9 (they were only 9 then) for a leg amputation on file.

One of the times I was brought into that client was after they had just gotten caught for the umpteenth time. I had to write and run one of the reports to be handed over. The story going around, fueled by actual court case details is that one of the claims people at Medicare succumbed to good old fashioned bribery. Everything was still paper then and someone had to authorize the paper after reviewing. The reviews weren't medical, just for the payment rules and to verify the prices against Redbook. There was a lot of ghastly price gouging going on. Despite the bigger things that turned up in the report the thing that pissed me off the most was the syringes. Been a lot of years but it still pisses me off. They were paying $10 for a box wholesale. I "believe" the boxes were 100 packs. They were supposed to charge $1.50 each which is still an outrageous markup. They were charging $15 each. Insulin taking diabetics use a lot of those. They honestly believed it would never turn up.

That former client got bought by a larger pharmacy chain and guess what? This past month or so got nailed for over billing Medicare again.

The move to electronic billing records was supposed to get rid of Medicare fraud. It didn't. It did shut down a lot of the old scams. Van loads of HICFA forms are no longer showing up. But there are still a lot of loop holes if there wasn't I wouldn't have heard about yet another over billing fraud within the past few months.

When Obamacare got passed the bribe taking politicians coded into the law that Medicare was not allowed to negotiate the prices of drugs and services. This whole Redbook thing became even more official. It is illegal for any drug company to sell their drugs to any entity at a cheaper price than they sell to Medicare. This routinely happens and leads to many of the fraud cases.

Congress could fix this today without touching the Obamacare law or violating the letter of it.

Both the VA and DOD _are_ allowed to negotiate prices for drugs and services. Not only are they allowed, they actively do negotiate. I haven't been personally involved in it, but I believe some of the fraud cases come about because the VA negotiates a better price than Redbook has for Medicare.

Simply tagging as a rider onto some bill that is going to pass a requirement for Medicare to purchase all of its drugs via the VA would eliminate huge quantities of fraud. If they had to purchase drugs, equipment, and services through the VA it would basically cut out the insurance fraud. Well, the biggest part of it. They still need a lot of huristic (sp?) checks on ICD (what are they now, 11?) codes so they aren't paying for artificial limbs when the patient never had an amputation but they would have more free time to look at such things and they could validate against VA shipping records.
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-16 13:16:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
Post by seasoned_geek
Please, before you talk out your ass, during Bernie's last run (his
42nd?) for president I was both a big donor and backer. If Hillary
hadn't rigged the primary he would be president now. If Trump had been
actually interested in enforcing the law instead of just keeping his
own ass out of prison Hillary and the heads of the Democratic party in
charge of the primary rigging would have all been put in prison for
financial fraud.
Question: What are the 1700 super delegates the democrats allow at their
convention?
Answer: 1700 votes for a candidate favored by the party leaders who
don't give a damn what the people want.
Ya all just show up and pull the leaver, no thinking required.
Before the conspiracy theories go to far maybe we should
recap the actual result.

Available:

pledged delegates 4041
super delegates 712
total delegate 4763
delegates >50% 2382

Hillary:

16.9 million votes (won 34 states) => 2271 pledged delegates
571 super delegates
total 2842 delegates

Bernie:

13.2 million votes (won 23 states) => 1820 pledged delegates
45 super delegates
total 1865 delegates

Arne
Dave Froble
2020-03-16 13:30:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Dave Froble
Post by seasoned_geek
Please, before you talk out your ass, during Bernie's last run (his
42nd?) for president I was both a big donor and backer. If Hillary
hadn't rigged the primary he would be president now. If Trump had
been actually interested in enforcing the law instead of just keeping
his own ass out of prison Hillary and the heads of the Democratic
party in charge of the primary rigging would have all been put in
prison for financial fraud.
Question: What are the 1700 super delegates the democrats allow at
their convention?
Answer: 1700 votes for a candidate favored by the party leaders who
don't give a damn what the people want.
Ya all just show up and pull the leaver, no thinking required.
Before the conspiracy theories go to far maybe we should
recap the actual result.
pledged delegates 4041
super delegates 712
total delegate 4763
delegates >50% 2382
16.9 million votes (won 34 states) => 2271 pledged delegates
571 super delegates
total 2842 delegates
13.2 million votes (won 23 states) => 1820 pledged delegates
45 super delegates
total 1865 delegates
Arne
Not sure where you are getting your numbers. My (sometimes feeble)
memory was a total of 1700 super delegates. Regardless of the number,
my claim about the super delegates stands. Not picked by voters.
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Arne Vajhøj
2020-03-16 14:24:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Dave Froble
Post by seasoned_geek
Please, before you talk out your ass, during Bernie's last run (his
42nd?) for president I was both a big donor and backer. If Hillary
hadn't rigged the primary he would be president now. If Trump had
been actually interested in enforcing the law instead of just keeping
his own ass out of prison Hillary and the heads of the Democratic
party in charge of the primary rigging would have all been put in
prison for financial fraud.
Question: What are the 1700 super delegates the democrats allow at
their convention?
Answer: 1700 votes for a candidate favored by the party leaders who
don't give a damn what the people want.
Ya all just show up and pull the leaver, no thinking required.
Before the conspiracy theories go to far maybe we should
recap the actual result.
pledged delegates  4041
super delegates     712
total delegate     4763
delegates >50%     2382
16.9 million votes (won 34 states) => 2271 pledged delegates
571 super delegates
total 2842 delegates
13.2 million votes (won 23 states) => 1820 pledged delegates
45 super delegates
total 1865 delegates
Not sure where you are getting your numbers.  My (sometimes feeble)
memory was a total of 1700 super delegates.  Regardless of the number,
my claim about the super delegates stands.  Not picked by voters.
Wikipedia got a rather detailed article about 2016 democratic primaries.

:-)

They changed the rules for 2020 a bit.

It is 3979 unpledged delegates and 771 super delegates. But super
delegates does not get to vote in the first round. Meaning that
50% of pledged delegates ensure win, but <50% but still most
pledged delegates does not ensure win.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Arne
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-16 20:00:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dave Froble
my claim about the super delegates stands. Not picked by voters.
If you object to lack of democracy, the Electoral College itself and the
way the popular vote in a state is converted into delegates is a much
bigger problem.
John E. Malmberg
2020-03-17 13:38:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
my claim about the super delegates stands. Not picked by voters.
If you object to lack of democracy, the Electoral College itself and the
way the popular vote in a state is converted into delegates is a much
bigger problem.
With out the Electoral College, for all of its flaws, only a handful of
states (Actually large cities in those states) would effectively decide
most presidential elections.

There are a lot of serious problems that can arise from that that were
seen when the U.S. political system was drawn up.

You can end up with a system where since the votes don't count as much,
the less populous areas end up subsidizing the more populous areas.

An example is the city of Chicago as compared to the rest of Illinois.
The Chicago area and its suburbs are 1/2 the population of Illinois.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/why-illinois-pols-havent-fixed-our-fiscal-crisis

So if you make promises to Chicago voters that claims to put more money
in their pocket, you will win elections, even if the City of Chicago can
not possibly make enough revenue to pay the bills.

Ideally a city should be more efficient than rural areas and thus should
generate more tax revenue than it needs. In practice we often see the
exact opposite, that heavy subsidies and bailouts are needed.

This pretty much forces most people outside the high population zone to
have to vote for the opposite party of those high population areas just
to try to keep from being snow-balled over, even if they don't fully
agree with that party.

And the U.S. has a lot of population in rural areas. You can see this
political trend in the just about any voting history chart.


Now right though elections all over the world are probably going to be
decided by the people who thought hoarding toilet paper was a good idea
for this Covid-19 crises.

That probably helps to explain our current choices in the U.S.

Be aware that when there is an incumbent president, most states allow
voting in the opposition party primary instead, so those that support
the current president will be casting primary votes for the candidate
that they think is most likely to lose.

And I see a lot of cases where someone outside of this country (Or in
Hollywood) are giving praises to what the current headlines of what one
of the candidates is claiming to represent, with out really knowing the
real history of the candidate.

The reforms that I would like to see are:
1. All voters can vote in every party primary.
2. No political parties listed on a general election ballot.

It is a primary election day for me, the vote is mainly symbolic, going
by past election results. The Chicago area votes alone will pick the
primary winner, unless there is an unusually high turn out in the rest
of the state. The same will be true for the general election.

Regards,
-John
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-17 14:32:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by John E. Malmberg
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
my claim about the super delegates stands. Not picked by voters.
If you object to lack of democracy, the Electoral College itself and the
way the popular vote in a state is converted into delegates is a much
bigger problem.
With out the Electoral College, for all of its flaws, only a handful of
states (Actually large cities in those states) would effectively decide
most presidential elections.
One could argue that that is OK, if they represent the majority of the
population. Even if not, one could imagine a scheme where the President
can be elected only if he gets the majority of the popular vote AND a
majority of states. Or many other schemes. Many would be better than
the Electoral College. It might have made sense two-and-one-half
centuries ago, but times have changed.

In other words, there are more options than just the Electoral College
or a popular vote and nothing else.
Post by John E. Malmberg
Be aware that when there is an incumbent president, most states allow
voting in the opposition party primary instead, so those that support
the current president will be casting primary votes for the candidate
that they think is most likely to lose.
That is just stupid.
Post by John E. Malmberg
1. All voters can vote in every party primary.
2. No political parties listed on a general election ballot.
I would rather see a complete party system, i.e. the party elects their
candidate, by whatever rules they want (which could include polling
their members, or even an open primary), or just a list of names.

There are other problems, of course. Imagine, say, 60% of the voters in
one camp, and 40% in the other, but 5 candidates in the first camp and
only one in the other. Due to splitting the vote in camp A, the camp-B
candidate would win, even though a clear majority are in the other camp.
This is usually handled by requiring an absolute majority; if there is
none in the first round, then there is a runoff. (This can even be done
without a separate second election in a so-called instant runoff, where
one ranks the candidates in order of preference.)
V***@SendSpamHere.ORG
2020-03-17 16:08:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by John E. Malmberg
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
my claim about the super delegates stands. Not picked by voters.
If you object to lack of democracy, the Electoral College itself and the
way the popular vote in a state is converted into delegates is a much
bigger problem.
With out the Electoral College, for all of its flaws, only a handful of
states (Actually large cities in those states) would effectively decide
most presidential elections.
There are a lot of serious problems that can arise from that that were
seen when the U.S. political system was drawn up.
You can end up with a system where since the votes don't count as much,
the less populous areas end up subsidizing the more populous areas.
An example is the city of Chicago as compared to the rest of Illinois.
The Chicago area and its suburbs are 1/2 the population of Illinois.
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/opinion/why-illinois-pols-havent-fixed-our-fiscal-crisis
So if you make promises to Chicago voters that claims to put more money
in their pocket, you will win elections, even if the City of Chicago can
not possibly make enough revenue to pay the bills.
Ideally a city should be more efficient than rural areas and thus should
generate more tax revenue than it needs. In practice we often see the
exact opposite, that heavy subsidies and bailouts are needed.
This pretty much forces most people outside the high population zone to
have to vote for the opposite party of those high population areas just
to try to keep from being snow-balled over, even if they don't fully
agree with that party.
And the U.S. has a lot of population in rural areas. You can see this
political trend in the just about any voting history chart.
Now right though elections all over the world are probably going to be
decided by the people who thought hoarding toilet paper was a good idea
for this Covid-19 crises.
The subject of toilet paper would be far more appropriate for a WEENDOZE
newsgroup. :P
--
VAXman- A Bored Certified VMS Kernel Mode Hacker VAXman(at)TMESIS(dot)ORG

I speak to machines with the voice of humanity.
V***@SendSpamHere.ORG
2020-03-16 21:35:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
my claim about the super delegates stands. Not picked by voters.
If you object to lack of democracy, the Electoral College itself and the
way the popular vote in a state is converted into delegates is a much
bigger problem.
You prefer the three wolves and a sheep deciding on what's for dinner?
--
VAXman- A Bored Certified VMS Kernel Mode Hacker VAXman(at)TMESIS(dot)ORG

I speak to machines with the voice of humanity.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-17 07:22:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by V***@SendSpamHere.ORG
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Dave Froble
my claim about the super delegates stands. Not picked by voters.
If you object to lack of democracy, the Electoral College itself and the
way the popular vote in a state is converted into delegates is a much
bigger problem.
You prefer the three wolves and a sheep deciding on what's for dinner?
False dichotomy.
Bob Gezelter
2020-03-17 10:09:08 UTC
Permalink
All,

Some notes:

- The test for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 infection), according to several medical sources interviewed on CNN, is similar in technique to the test "that determines viral load for HIV". It is measuring the number of viral particles, NOT antibodies.

- the reports of "reinfection" are not confirmed. They may be testing errors. It could also be re-emergence as opposed to re-infection

- the way that viral outbreaks subside is when the number of hosts that can be infected drops below the probability needed to sustain the chain. Whether acquired through infection or vaccination, this the genesis of "herd immunity". The problem with uncontrolled infection is that it does produce an immune population, but with no effective therapeutics, there will be a large number of casualties.

Right now, the best measure supported by the science is, as has been said by numerous experts, social distancing to lengthen the time and therefore reduce the intensity of the outbreak. This will reduce the load on the healthcare system and prevent casualties due to healthcare overload.

- Bob Gezelter, http://www.rlgsc.com
Brian_R
2020-03-13 13:38:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
I was reluctant to raise this, given that it is totally off topic,
but it affects everyone here and I was wondering what the situation
is really like on the ground around the planet compared to what the
media are and are not reporting.
My viewpoint from the North East of England is that panic buying is pain
in the arse (looking at you elderly lady with 36 rolls of toilet roll and a
trolley full of tins etc.), blitz spirit my arse. Those folks who can just
about afford their weekly groceries are going to end up out of pocket, no
doubt that somewhere, people will be making a killing with this.

Plenty of gallows humour in the office, especially those with diabetes or
other scary health problems.

I suspect that trust is the government is zero, and rapidly declining.

Barring that, as happy as can be....


cheers


Brian
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-13 14:35:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
For those of us that survive 2020.
I was reluctant to raise this, given that it is totally off topic,
but it affects everyone here and I was wondering what the situation
is really like on the ground around the planet compared to what the
media are and are not reporting.
There are those who say that the situation is much, much worse than it
is now, or will soon become so, basically because many people have few
symptoms and thus think that they are not infected and spread it to
others. There are others who say that it's a conspiracy to distract
attention from other things, affect the economy so that Trump loses, and
so on. Often, when an idea is criticized about equally from both sides,
it is pretty much correct.

Yes, total deaths now are not as high as from the normal flu.
(Influenza is like an orgasm---if you aren't sure whether you've had it,
you haven't.) First, that could change soon. Second, imagine a
shooting spree. During the at most few hours until the shooter is
captured or shot, many more people will die in traffic accidents and so
on, but that's neither a reason not to report on it nor a reason not to
protect oneself from it.
Post by Simon Clubley
Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level concern
but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the various
hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is not reacting
strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real feeling that
things could escalate out of control over the coming weeks due to that.
I'm waiting for Boris Johnson to blame it on the EU.

The main problem in many places, especially if it spreads quickly, is
that there aren't enough hospital beds.
Post by Simon Clubley
How are things in your part of the planet ?
People are keeping calm and carrying on, taking the necessary
precautions.
Post by Simon Clubley
Anyone know if there are any open positions at the IceCube lab ? :-)
Probably not a good idea, as viruses like cold. (Bacteria, in contrast,
like warmth, which is why one has a refrigerator to keep food fresh.) As
such, public saunas are one of the few places where there might be many
people but the risk of infection is relatively low. Also, public
swimming pools are OK (even more so if the water is warm), as there is
chlorine in the water; one is literally swimming in disinfectant. Of
course, one should keep one's distance here, but it is much less
dangerous than going to a concert, taking public transportation, going
to the cinema, watching a sports match, and so on.
Simon Clubley
2020-03-13 18:38:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
The main problem in many places, especially if it spreads quickly, is
that there aren't enough hospital beds.
Indeed. Some people are looking at the relatively low death rate now,
but are not considering the number of people who need advanced critical
care in order to survive it.

Those death rates are likely to go up if the health services get
overwhelmed because there is unlikely to be enough critical care
equipment to meet everyone's needs. I suspect we would be looking
at a triage situation in that case where the goal is to maximise
the number of survivors instead of being able to treat everyone who
would otherwise be able to get advanced treatment and survive.

Simon.
--
Simon Clubley, ***@remove_me.eisner.decus.org-Earth.UFP
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
t***@frontieranalytical.com
2020-03-13 15:49:48 UTC
Permalink
Here in the Republik of Kalifornia, dead center on the hot spot list for the dreaded pandemic, it's business as usual.
Might as well predict a 9.0 earthquake while we're at it.
Toilet paper has pretty much vanished off the shelves at the Costo, Target and WallMart, so has chlorine bleach and hand sanitizer.
Schools are closing, no professional sports, concerts are cancelled, yet lines are just as long at the local restaurants.
It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out, just hope we don't lose too much of the best segment of the population.

'Crabs
seasoned_geek
2020-03-14 00:56:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by t***@frontieranalytical.com
Here in the Republik of Kalifornia, dead center on the hot spot list for the dreaded pandemic, it's business as usual.
Might as well predict a 9.0 earthquake while we're at it.
Toilet paper has pretty much vanished off the shelves at the Costo, Target and WallMart, so has chlorine bleach and hand sanitizer.
Schools are closing, no professional sports, concerts are cancelled, yet lines are just as long at the local restaurants.
It'll be interesting to see how it all pans out, just hope we don't lose too much of the best segment of the population.
'Crabs
The biggest problem right now for the left coast according to NPR is the massive homeless population without access to regular bathing/hand washing. Big fears that when it takes root there it will really germinate. A few random cases in the general population with jobs who live indoors not a huge deal. The homeless population, which is large in year round summer locations, will be a true foothold situation. Many have underlying health conditions.

Here in Illinois they just closed all of the schools and asked the churches to close. If you saw the story an infected woman went to a mega church and infected 40 people who went out and infected others.

I'm sitting at home writing two more books now that AGILE book is off to final editor. Kind of glad my Chicago contract fell through as it would suck to be paying for corporate housing and unable to go into work.

Chicago is on its way to becoming the new epicenter for the disease. OHare airport is _such_ a blessing.

I misspoke earlier. The schools are shut down as to Tuesday morning. They are risking contamination on Monday so kids can get enough take home assignments to keep them busy through end of month. School lunch programs can continue to provide food on a delivery or parent pick up basis. I understand the need given the lunch program provides the basic nutrition for many of the kids from poorer families. We throw more food away in America every day than it would take to feed the world, yet we still have a hunger problem.

I watched our governor giving his address yesterday. In just an hour he did more than the president in a month. We went from "fake news" to national emergency in a single week's news cycle.

I did write a couple of blog posts if you feel like being entertained.

http://www.interestingauthors.com/blog/experience/coronavirus/

http://www.interestingauthors.com/blog/finance/are-you-ready-for-the-dow-to-hit-8000/

The financial dominoes are going to be far worse than the disease death toll.
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-14 07:47:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by seasoned_geek
The biggest problem right now for the left coast according to NPR is the
massive homeless population without access to regular bathing/hand
washing. Big fears that when it takes root there it will really
germinate. A few random cases in the general population with jobs who
live indoors not a huge deal. The homeless population, which is large in
year round summer locations, will be a true foothold situation. Many
have underlying health conditions.
Maybe the USA will probably wake up and smell the coffee and realize
that tens of millions of people without health insurance is not a good
idea at any time, and can lead to a massive death toll---including some
insured people---under the present circumstances. Maybe Bernie will win
after all.
Post by seasoned_geek
Here in Illinois they just closed all of the schools and asked the
churches to close. If you saw the story an infected woman went to a mega
church and infected 40 people who went out and infected others.
Like a lightning rod on a church, if this isn't an admission on the part
of the faithful that there is no God, then I don't know what is.
IanD
2020-03-14 17:22:08 UTC
Permalink
On Saturday, March 14, 2020 at 6:47:20 PM UTC+11, Phillip Helbig (undress to reply) wrote:

<snip>
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Maybe the USA will probably wake up and smell the coffee and realize
that tens of millions of people without health insurance is not a good
idea at any time, and can lead to a massive death toll---including some
insured people---under the present circumstances. Maybe Bernie will win
after all.
The American system is broken because there is no transparency to the point where buyers cannot easily shop and compare services. I've seen studies that show it's impossible to obtain a full quote for a major procedure up-front

The notion of a government looking after you depends on whether you think the State is a de-facto 'Mummy and Daddy' who needs to look after you after you've left home and meant to be all grown up or not. For some this parental notion is hard to shake off

There is no benevolence in government, only fools believe in such a notion

It does however make sense to provide for basic healthcare in a general population, especially if you want to maintain a reasonable level of population health

How that is achieved and fairly done across a broad range of age and needs is the difficult part. The young don't need much and are better off being allowed to put their resources into building their future wealth, the older, need more healthcare

Australia's healthcare system does a fairly reasonable job at keeping a balance between public and private healthcare

The public system tends to look after essentials and is accessible to all and you are 'encouraged' to have private cover if you want more personalised healthcare such as your own specialists and private hospital admission.

The 'encouragement' to have private cover also comes in the form of being hit with up to an additional tax of up to 1.5% of your income if you do not have private healthcare and earn above a certain amount.
It's meant to drive those who can afford it towards private cover to reduce the demand on the public system

The public system has longer waiting times and will not cover cosmetic surgery and other non-essential items

In Australia the healthcare funds have to publish their monthly cost and all the conditions of what is covered with that service and any limits involved. It makes it very easy to compare funds and there are plenty of sites cross-comparing. Even the government has a private healthcare comparison site

<snip>
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Like a lightning rod on a church, if this isn't an admission on the part
of the faithful that there is no God, then I don't know what is.
What a fallacious argument or was it an attempt at humor?

It falls flat for a number of reasons

1. The premise is wrong, a Church is the people, not a building
2. I highly doubt most church buildings have a lightning rod, they wouldn't meet the minimum height
3. For buildings that are large enough for a lightning rod, those entering wouldn't be giving it any thought about any lightning protection
4. By your reasoning, I take it you wear a seat belt because you have no faith in the air-bag ? Perhaps only those who have no faith in air-bags need to have seat-belts fitted in their vehicles then?
seasoned_geek
2020-03-15 05:03:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by IanD
2. I highly doubt most church buildings have a lightning rod, they wouldn't meet the minimum height
Ummm, not to be a penis with ears, but the church I endured growing up had a steeple and lightning rods. All of the churches around here do. I live rural and that church was on a hill.

Somewhere on the History Channel one of their engineering or modern marvels shows actually had a segment on this. Being an alter boy in rural America was at one time one of the most dangerous jobs in America. When a bad storm was coming it was the job of the alter boy to ring the church bell so the surrounding farms would know. (Many churches were built on hills and you could see a long way from the bell tower of the steeple. Anyway, the rain and lightning would get there and the alter boy had to keep ringing the bell for some length of time. Rain would run down the rope and lightning would strike the bell, finding its way to ground via the alter boy.

Yes, you are correct, the church is the people, but the church building needs a lightning rod.

Just my 0.0002 cents
MG
2020-03-14 20:54:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
How are things in your part of the planet ?
Not a boomer, so I may be fine either way.

Until very recently the government of the Netherlands didn't
appear to particularly care much. They long belittled the
seriousness and instilled the idea that "it's just a flu",
like a certain president up to barely a week ago. The prime
minister even ridiculed taking precautions with regard to
personal hygiene (like avoiding handshakes), in an effort to
mitigate the further spread of the virus.

- MG
Andrew Shaw
2020-03-26 01:14:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
For those of us that survive 2020.
I was reluctant to raise this, given that it is totally off topic,
but it affects everyone here and I was wondering what the situation
is really like on the ground around the planet compared to what the
media are and are not reporting.
I've marked the thread as off-topic and started a new thread so that
it's easy to kill file or skip over.
Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level concern
but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the various
hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is not reacting
strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real feeling that
things could escalate out of control over the coming weeks due to that.
How are things in your part of the planet ?
$ set response/mode=good_natured
Anyone know if there are any open positions at the IceCube lab ? :-)
Thanks,
Simon.
--
Walking destinations on a map are further away than they appear.
Down here on the other side of the world - Australia, we have panic buying going on in epidemic proportions. In some supermarkets we have police rationing the distribution of toilet paper, which by now you pretty much just cannot get - at all.

Most of our States have now implemented travel lock downs and closed their borders, so even interstate travel is no longer possible. My company, and indeed most are on enforced Work from Home. I myself have been on enforced WFH for many months now due to Cancer and have been practising "Social Distancing" long before it became "de rigueur". That puts me fairly and squarely in the "vulnerable" pool with a massively compromised immune system. COVID could quite seriously be the death of me so I am lying very low !

I have to say though that I love the WFH approach - I may never commute again !
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-26 15:49:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Andrew Shaw
Down here on the other side of the world - Australia, we have panic buying
going on in epidemic proportions. In some supermarkets we have police
rationing the distribution of toilet paper, which by now you pretty much
just cannot get - at all.
I don't understand the toilet-paper hoarding. OK, if one expects to be
at home more, one buys more in general, since one neither eats nor shits
as much away from home. But why is everything else only, say, a factor
of 2 more or whatever, and toilet paper a factor of 8?

There is a vicious circle, of course: if toilet paper is sold out, when
it is available again even the non-hoarders will stock up, because they
(correctly) assume that the hoarders will be back.

The scatalogical vicious circle reminded me of this: A company wanted
to use Johnny Cash's "Ring of Fire" for an advertisement. His heirs
didn't allow them. It was for medication for hemorrhoids.
Jay E. Morris
2020-03-26 16:20:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Andrew Shaw
Down here on the other side of the world - Australia, we have panic buying
going on in epidemic proportions. In some supermarkets we have police
rationing the distribution of toilet paper, which by now you pretty much
just cannot get - at all.
I don't understand the toilet-paper hoarding. OK, if one expects to be
at home more, one buys more in general, since one neither eats nor shits
as much away from home. But why is everything else only, say, a factor
of 2 more or whatever, and toilet paper a factor of 8?
There is a vicious circle, of course: if toilet paper is sold out, when
it is available again even the non-hoarders will stock up, because they
(correctly) assume that the hoarders will be back.
The scatalogical vicious circle reminded me of this: A company wanted
to use Johnny Cash's "Ring of Fire" for an advertisement. His heirs
didn't allow them. It was for medication for hemorrhoids.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/heres-why-people-are-panic-buying-and-stockpiling-toilet-paper.html
Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
2020-03-26 16:27:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jay E. Morris
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/heres-why-people-are-panic-buying-and-stockpiling-toilet-paper.html
Essentially says that in panic one wants high volumes and value, and
toilet paper is cheap and bulky. I'm not convinced.

Much of it can be explained by the vicious circle, but why toilet paper
in the first place? There are other things which are cheap and bulky.
Bruce Bowler
2020-03-26 17:04:04 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 16:27:21 +0000, Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Jay E. Morris
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/heres-why-people-are-panic-buying-and-
stockpiling-toilet-paper.html
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Essentially says that in panic one wants high volumes and value, and
toilet paper is cheap and bulky. I'm not convinced.
Much of it can be explained by the vicious circle, but why toilet paper
in the first place? There are other things which are cheap and bulky.
Besides which, it's a RESPIRATORY virus, not a GASTROINTESTINAL virus.
Hoard Kleenex, not TP.
Bill Gunshannon
2020-03-26 18:11:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bruce Bowler
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 16:27:21 +0000, Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Jay E. Morris
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/heres-why-people-are-panic-buying-and-
stockpiling-toilet-paper.html
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Essentially says that in panic one wants high volumes and value, and
toilet paper is cheap and bulky. I'm not convinced.
Much of it can be explained by the vicious circle, but why toilet paper
in the first place? There are other things which are cheap and bulky.
Besides which, it's a RESPIRATORY virus, not a GASTROINTESTINAL virus.
Hoard Kleenex, not TP.
Never blame malice for something that can be reasonably
explained by stupidity.


bill
Michael Moroney
2020-03-26 18:54:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Bruce Bowler
On Thu, 26 Mar 2020 16:27:21 +0000, Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Jay E. Morris
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/heres-why-people-are-panic-buying-and-
stockpiling-toilet-paper.html
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Essentially says that in panic one wants high volumes and value, and
toilet paper is cheap and bulky. I'm not convinced.
Much of it can be explained by the vicious circle, but why toilet paper
in the first place? There are other things which are cheap and bulky.
Besides which, it's a RESPIRATORY virus, not a GASTROINTESTINAL virus.
Hoard Kleenex, not TP.
Never blame malice for something that can be reasonably
explained by stupidity.
Yes. It doesn't take much to start a run on toilet paper.
In the 1970s, Johnny Carson on the Tonight Show made a joke about a
toilet paper shortage (which didn't exist). The next day, people went
panic buying, and guess what? The next day, there _was_ a toilet paper
shortage!
Post by Bill Gunshannon
The scatalogical vicious circle reminded me of this: A company wanted
to use Johnny Cash's "Ring of Fire" for an advertisement. His heirs
didn't allow them. It was for medication for hemorrhoids.
Speaking of scatalogical products, celebrity connections and Johnny Carson,
Johnny Carson once sued a porta-potty company which sold its product under the
name "Here's Johnny".

(I assume everyone here is old enough to know of Johnny Carson)
Dave Froble
2020-03-26 18:57:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phillip Helbig (undress to reply)
Post by Jay E. Morris
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/heres-why-people-are-panic-buying-and-stockpiling-toilet-paper.html
Essentially says that in panic one wants high volumes and value, and
toilet paper is cheap and bulky. I'm not convinced.
Much of it can be explained by the vicious circle, but why toilet paper
in the first place? There are other things which are cheap and bulky.
https://vod.ebay.com/vod/FetchOrderDetails?itemid=164126450315&transid=1969411000006&ul_noapp=true
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Richard Maher
2020-04-04 07:10:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Simon Clubley
For those of us that survive 2020.
I was reluctant to raise this, given that it is totally off topic,
but it affects everyone here and I was wondering what the situation
is really like on the ground around the planet compared to what the
media are and are not reporting.
I've marked the thread as off-topic and started a new thread so that
it's easy to kill file or skip over.
Here in Northern England in the UK, there's a lot of low-level
concern but not a massive amount of panic buying yet (apart from the
various hand gels). There is some concern that the UK government is
not reacting strongly enough or quickly enough yet and there's a real
feeling that things could escalate out of control over the coming
weeks due to that.
How are things in your part of the planet ?
$ set response/mode=good_natured
Anyone know if there are any open positions at the IceCube lab ? :-)
Thanks,
Simon.
They think you look like a pangolin . . .
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Jfjmo1AAwWMyi1aNzDxKhsXIBqpa4ONo
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-05 17:34:21 UTC
Permalink
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.

Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
(at least that is how they interpret what the governor said):

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers

Arne
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-05 17:57:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
The one important missing piece is what hardware is it running
on and what parts other than the COBOL is it using? Speeding
up the COBOL and giving it more resources could be as simple
as a recompile on more modern hardware. Or, even something
like moving it to an emulator and keeping the system intact. I
have been playing with an emulated PDP-11 this past week and
I have run jobs that the documentation say will take about 3
hours and has them finish successfully in 5-10 minutes.

Like everything in this business, the worst mistake they can
make is to make a decision without all of the necessary information.

bill
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-05 18:50:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
The one important missing piece is what hardware is it running
on and what parts other than the COBOL is it using?  Speeding
up the COBOL and giving it more resources could be as simple
as a recompile on more modern hardware.  Or, even something
like moving it to an emulator and keeping the system intact. I
have been playing with an emulated PDP-11 this past week and
I have run jobs that the documentation say will take about 3
hours and has them finish successfully in 5-10 minutes.
Like everything in this business, the worst mistake they can
make is to make a decision without all of the necessary information.
If they want to find people then that would be very useful
information.

Given that NJ is a relative big state and that the system
is supposedly 40-50 years old, then it seems pretty likely
that it is an IBM system.

There is one page on the internet with the story that explicit
says mainframe, but who knows if they actually knows or
just guess.

Arne
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-05 19:06:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
The one important missing piece is what hardware is it running
on and what parts other than the COBOL is it using?  Speeding
up the COBOL and giving it more resources could be as simple
as a recompile on more modern hardware.  Or, even something
like moving it to an emulator and keeping the system intact. I
have been playing with an emulated PDP-11 this past week and
I have run jobs that the documentation say will take about 3
hours and has them finish successfully in 5-10 minutes.
Like everything in this business, the worst mistake they can
make is to make a decision without all of the necessary information.
If they want to find people then that would be very useful
information.
Given that NJ is a relative big state and that the system
is supposedly 40-50 years old, then it seems pretty likely
that it is an IBM system.
I see no reason to make that assumption. It could be Unisys
1100/2200. Or VMS (possibly running on a VAX still). Or,
gasp, even a PDP-11. I got a lot of my PDP-11 hardware from
places in New Jersey and not because they were replacing the
base system. some were just moving from RA Disks to SCSI.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
There is one page on the internet with the story that explicit
says mainframe, but who knows if they actually knows or
just guess.
That also doesn't guarantee IBM could be Unisys. That's what
the IRS is still using and, yes, COBOL.
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-05 19:56:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
The one important missing piece is what hardware is it running
on and what parts other than the COBOL is it using?  Speeding
up the COBOL and giving it more resources could be as simple
as a recompile on more modern hardware.  Or, even something
like moving it to an emulator and keeping the system intact. I
have been playing with an emulated PDP-11 this past week and
I have run jobs that the documentation say will take about 3
hours and has them finish successfully in 5-10 minutes.
Like everything in this business, the worst mistake they can
make is to make a decision without all of the necessary information.
If they want to find people then that would be very useful
information.
Given that NJ is a relative big state and that the system
is supposedly 40-50 years old, then it seems pretty likely
that it is an IBM system.
I see no reason to make that assumption.  It could be Unisys
1100/2200.  Or VMS (possibly running on a VAX still).  Or,
gasp, even a PDP-11.  I got a lot of my PDP-11 hardware from
places in New Jersey and not  because they were replacing the
base system.  some were just  moving from RA Disks to SCSI.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
There is one page on the internet with the story that explicit
says mainframe, but who knows if they actually knows or
just guess.
That also doesn't guarantee IBM could be Unisys.  That's what
the IRS is still using and, yes, COBOL.
It could be something non-IBM, but I think there is a
pretty high probability that it is IBM.

Arne
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-05 21:21:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
The one important missing piece is what hardware is it running
on and what parts other than the COBOL is it using?  Speeding
up the COBOL and giving it more resources could be as simple
as a recompile on more modern hardware.  Or, even something
like moving it to an emulator and keeping the system intact. I
have been playing with an emulated PDP-11 this past week and
I have run jobs that the documentation say will take about 3
hours and has them finish successfully in 5-10 minutes.
Like everything in this business, the worst mistake they can
make is to make a decision without all of the necessary information.
If they want to find people then that would be very useful
information.
Given that NJ is a relative big state and that the system
is supposedly 40-50 years old, then it seems pretty likely
that it is an IBM system.
I see no reason to make that assumption.  It could be Unisys
1100/2200.  Or VMS (possibly running on a VAX still).  Or,
gasp, even a PDP-11.  I got a lot of my PDP-11 hardware from
places in New Jersey and not  because they were replacing the
base system.  some were just  moving from RA Disks to SCSI.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
There is one page on the internet with the story that explicit
says mainframe, but who knows if they actually knows or
just guess.
That also doesn't guarantee IBM could be Unisys.  That's what
the IRS is still using and, yes, COBOL.
It could be something non-IBM, but I think there is a
pretty high probability that it is IBM.
It has been posted now that it is at least on the backend, IBM.
As I stated in my other reply, I would be looking at something
in the other non-mainframe pieces as the likely culprit.

bill
Scott Dorsey
2020-04-05 19:31:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Given that NJ is a relative big state and that the system
is supposedly 40-50 years old, then it seems pretty likely
that it is an IBM system.
More likely it was developed on an IBM Z-system but then ported to something
much cheaper to operate in the 1990s when it was fashionable to do that as
a cost-cutting measure.

Which is the worst of all possible environments because you need people who
know the new architecture but also know the old architecture well enough to
understand why things were done the way they were.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
There is one page on the internet with the story that explicit
says mainframe, but who knows if they actually knows or
just guess.
Lots of mainframe applications aren't running on mainframes anymore, but
they still look the same from the user's perspective. The user sees their
data entry screens on a PC window instead of on a 3270 but they look the same.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-05 20:01:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
The one important missing piece is what hardware is it running
on and what parts other than the COBOL is it using?  Speeding
up the COBOL and giving it more resources could be as simple
as a recompile on more modern hardware.  Or, even something
like moving it to an emulator and keeping the system intact. I
have been playing with an emulated PDP-11 this past week and
I have run jobs that the documentation say will take about 3
hours and has them finish successfully in 5-10 minutes.
Like everything in this business, the worst mistake they can
make is to make a decision without all of the necessary information.
If they want to find people then that would be very useful
information.
Given that NJ is a relative big state and that the system
is supposedly 40-50 years old, then it seems pretty likely
that it is an IBM system.
There is one page on the internet with the story that explicit
says mainframe, but who knows if they actually knows or
just guess.
I did some googling and found this:

http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/purchase/rfi/documents/NJ_LWD_Unemployment_Insurance_Benefits_System_RFI.pdf

<quote>
LWD’s current UI Benefits system consists of a collection of Mainframe
based systems utilizing COBOL and IMS Data Stores developed in the 70s
and 80s. Upgrades to the mainframe environment have included the
addition of a DB2 relational Database and MQ to facilitate connectivity
with other systems. (Core Data is split between IMS & DB2).
Additionally, an internal agent claims intake system uses client/server
technology with an Oracle relational database. UI Claims and
Certifications are also accepted through telephony applications (IVR).

As part of an upgrade in 2008 the legacy systems have been augmented
with Modern Web based UI Claims Intake and UI Claims Certification
modules focused on Claimant Self Service. These newer systems use a
separate Oracle relational database for data management.
</quote>

Mainframe, COBOL, IMS, DB2, MQ (not counting the modern frontend stuff).

So I still believe in IBM.

:-)

Arne
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-05 21:20:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
The one important missing piece is what hardware is it running
on and what parts other than the COBOL is it using?  Speeding
up the COBOL and giving it more resources could be as simple
as a recompile on more modern hardware.  Or, even something
like moving it to an emulator and keeping the system intact. I
have been playing with an emulated PDP-11 this past week and
I have run jobs that the documentation say will take about 3
hours and has them finish successfully in 5-10 minutes.
Like everything in this business, the worst mistake they can
make is to make a decision without all of the necessary information.
If they want to find people then that would be very useful
information.
Given that NJ is a relative big state and that the system
is supposedly 40-50 years old, then it seems pretty likely
that it is an IBM system.
There is one page on the internet with the story that explicit
says mainframe, but who knows if they actually knows or
just guess.
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/purchase/rfi/documents/NJ_LWD_Unemployment_Insurance_Benefits_System_RFI.pdf
<quote>
LWD’s current UI Benefits system consists of a collection of Mainframe
based systems utilizing COBOL and IMS Data Stores developed in the 70s
and 80s. Upgrades to the mainframe environment have included the
addition of a DB2 relational Database and MQ to facilitate connectivity
with other systems. (Core Data is split between IMS & DB2).
Additionally, an internal agent claims intake system uses client/server
technology with an Oracle relational database. UI Claims and
Certifications are also accepted through telephony applications (IVR).
As part of an upgrade in 2008 the legacy systems have been augmented
with Modern Web based UI Claims Intake and UI Claims Certification
modules focused on Claimant Self Service. These newer systems use a
separate Oracle relational database for data management.
</quote>
Mainframe, COBOL, IMS, DB2, MQ (not counting the modern frontend stuff).
So I still believe in IBM.
:-)
And if I were to make a guess at this point I would not be
looking at the COBOL. The Mainframe it runs on is very scalable
(unless their still on a 360/40 :-). I would be looking at either
the frontend stuff or communications.

bill
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-05 21:38:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/purchase/rfi/documents/NJ_LWD_Unemployment_Insurance_Benefits_System_RFI.pdf
Mainframe, COBOL, IMS, DB2, MQ (not counting the modern frontend stuff).
And if I were to make a guess at this point I would not be
looking at the COBOL.  The Mainframe it runs on is very scalable
(unless their still on a 360/40 :-).  I would be looking at either
the frontend stuff or communications.
It is very unclear what the problem is and why they are looking for
Cobol programmers,

If it is a frontend problem then why ask for Cobol programmers.

If it is a lack of hardware resources problem then why ask
for Cobol programmers (it is not realistic to try and optimize the
code at this time).

(I am sure IBM has a z box that can handle the load, but that does not
help NJ as it would take months to upgrade)

It sounds more like the load has triggered some problems. And even
if the root cause is not in the mainframe, then having somebody
that understand what is happening inside the mainframe could
help the troubleshooting.

Arne
Bill Gunshannon
2020-04-05 22:11:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/purchase/rfi/documents/NJ_LWD_Unemployment_Insurance_Benefits_System_RFI.pdf
Mainframe, COBOL, IMS, DB2, MQ (not counting the modern frontend stuff).
And if I were to make a guess at this point I would not be
looking at the COBOL.  The Mainframe it runs on is very scalable
(unless their still on a 360/40 :-).  I would be looking at either
the frontend stuff or communications.
It is very unclear what the problem is and why they are looking for
Cobol programmers,
Because they don't have a clue.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
If it is a frontend problem then why ask for Cobol programmers.
Because they don't have a clue.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
If it is a lack of hardware resources problem then why ask
for Cobol programmers (it is not realistic to try and optimize the
code at this time).
Because they don't have a clue.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
(I am sure IBM has a z box that can handle the load, but that does not
help NJ as it would take months to upgrade)
Not so sure about that. How long would it take to upgrade an
Itanium? Add CPU's? Add Blades?
Post by Arne Vajhøj
It sounds more like the load has triggered some problems. And even
if the root cause is not in the mainframe, then having somebody
that understand what is happening inside the mainframe could
help the troubleshooting.
As I said, they probably don't have a clue. And the governor
is just trying to grab more media time while shifting responsibility
onto someone else's shoulders.

bill
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-05 22:23:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
And if I were to make a guess at this point I would not be
looking at the COBOL.  The Mainframe it runs on is very scalable
(unless their still on a 360/40 :-).  I would be looking at either
the frontend stuff or communications.
It is very unclear what the problem is and why they are looking for
Cobol programmers,
Because they don't have a clue.
Considering that the governor called it "Cobalt" then that
seems to be the case.
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
(I am sure IBM has a z box that can handle the load, but that does not
help NJ as it would take months to upgrade)
Not so sure about that.  How long would it take to upgrade an
Itanium?  Add CPU's?  Add Blades?
Figuring out what is needed, get it ordered, get it delivered,
get a technician scheduled to install it, get it done.

VMS system via HPE: months.

VMS system with HW from IslandCo and DIY install: faster.

Mainframe via IBM: I suspect they operate more like HPE.

Arne
Dave Froble
2020-04-05 22:30:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Post by Bill Gunshannon
And if I were to make a guess at this point I would not be
looking at the COBOL. The Mainframe it runs on is very scalable
(unless their still on a 360/40 :-). I would be looking at either
the frontend stuff or communications.
It is very unclear what the problem is and why they are looking for
Cobol programmers,
Because they don't have a clue.
Considering that the governor called it "Cobalt" then that
seems to be the case.
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
(I am sure IBM has a z box that can handle the load, but that does not
help NJ as it would take months to upgrade)
Not so sure about that. How long would it take to upgrade an
Itanium? Add CPU's? Add Blades?
Figuring out what is needed, get it ordered, get it delivered,
get a technician scheduled to install it, get it done.
VMS system via HPE: months.
VMS system with HW from IslandCo and DIY install: faster.
David likes expensive shipping, so it just might be very fast.
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Mainframe via IBM: I suspect they operate more like HPE.
I'm willing to bet IBM has learned how to be very responsive. They are
still with us, right?
--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: ***@tsoft-inc.com
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
Arne Vajhøj
2020-04-09 01:12:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bill Gunshannon
Post by Arne Vajhøj
http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/purchase/rfi/documents/NJ_LWD_Unemployment_Insurance_Benefits_System_RFI.pdf
<quote>
LWD’s current UI Benefits system consists of a collection of Mainframe
based systems utilizing COBOL and IMS Data Stores developed in the 70s
and 80s. Upgrades to the mainframe environment have included the
addition of a DB2 relational Database and MQ to facilitate
connectivity with other systems. (Core Data is split between IMS & DB2).
Additionally, an internal agent claims intake system uses
client/server technology with an Oracle relational database. UI Claims
and Certifications are also accepted through telephony applications
(IVR).
As part of an upgrade in 2008 the legacy systems have been augmented
with Modern Web based UI Claims Intake and UI Claims Certification
modules focused on Claimant Self Service. These newer systems use a
separate Oracle relational database for data management.
</quote>
Mainframe, COBOL, IMS, DB2, MQ (not counting the modern frontend stuff).
So I still believe in IBM.
:-)
And if I were to make a guess at this point I would not be
looking at the COBOL.  The Mainframe it runs on is very scalable
(unless their still on a 360/40 :-).  I would be looking at either
the frontend stuff or communications.
BTW, Connecticut supposedly have a similar problem.

http://www.ctdol.state.ct.us/communic/newsrels/LABOR%20DEPARTMENT%20PROVIDES%20UPDATES%20TO%20EMPLOYEES,%20EMPLOYERS%20FOLLOWING%20RECORD%20NUMBER%20OF%20UNEMPLOYMENT%20BENEFIT%20APPLICATIONS.pdf

<quote>
According to Connecticut Department of Labor Commissioner Kurt Westby,
the agency has processed more than 90,000 of the over 250,000
unemployment claims filed in less than three weeks by residents affected
by the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of claims recently received far
exceeds the amount the agency typically receives in one year.
The numbers in Connecticut are staggering, but not unique. Unemployment
claims are up in record numbers across the country, and everyone is
doing their best to process claims as quickly as possible.
...
Agency employees are working overtime and weekends to ensure benefits
are paid as quickly as possible, Westby said the estimated backlog is
approximately five weeks.
</quote>

<quote>
Currently, the agency uses
a 40-year-old system comprised of a COBOL mainframe and four other
separate systems.
</quote>

But there are at least one difference compared to New Jersey - they are
working to get off the old system.

<quote>
He added that although CTDOL is developing a new,
more automated computer system, it will not be in operation until mid-2021.
...
The agency is fortunate to be part
of the ReEmployUSA five-state consortium made up of Connecticut, Maine,
Rhode Island, Mississippi and
Oklahoma.
</quote>

So 15 months (maybe plus some delays!) and they will be off.

And ReEmployUSA is not COBOL or mainframe. It is Java based
(and JavaScript in frontend) and cloud hosted.

Arne
V***@SendSpamHere.ORG
2020-04-05 19:19:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Arne Vajhøj
Not VMS related (I guess) but related to programming languages.
Apparently New Jersey unemployment benefit system is in COBOL
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/04/05/new_jersey_seeks_cobol_volunteers
No, snaggletooth said it was written in Cobalt! :P
--
VAXman- A Bored Certified VMS Kernel Mode Hacker VAXman(at)TMESIS(dot)ORG

I speak to machines with the voice of humanity.
Loading...